One year from today we will enter the final two weeks of the Presidential Race. The punditry are making certain predictions they see as “inevitable. But there is a big chance that the radical spirit in the air on both Left and Right as represented by Occupy Wall Street and the Tea Party, could prove the pundits wrong.
As to the Republicans, the conventional wisdom is that Mitt Romney is now the “inevitable” nominee of the Republican Party. He may in fact prevail next summer, but it is far from inevitable. Two factors will make this a long and brutal race for the nomination.
- 70% of Republicans want a hard line conservative. At some point the Tea Party Candidate will emerge between Perry and three dwarfs (Bachmann, Gingrich and Cain). They will never back Romney.Just read Rush Limbaugh fulminating last week that “The GOP Elite declares War On the Tea Party”. Limbaugh’s influence in the Tea Party is huge.
- Money-Rick Perry has raised a lot of money and he’s not going to shrink back to Texas without a fight. Reporting Romney’s quarterly total the New York Times noted.
The amount gives Mr. Romney what is expected to be the second largest third-quarter haul in the Republican field, behind Gov. Rick Perry of Texas. Mr. Perry’s aides said last week that he had raised more than $17 million for the period, which covered his first weeks in the campaign.
On the Democratic side, the rise of the Occupy Movement it is making it easier for Obama and the Democrats to fight a Populist Campaign for 2012 which isn’t on Tea Party terms, but on theirs. If Tea Party really does decide to throw their support to the very same Elite Republicans who Limbaugh claims are at war with the Tea Party,it would be a really revealing moment. To decide to throw away the revolutionary attitude and fight in an election—to “Help the One Percent”—(i.e. to have no “Billionaires” surtax). The Tea Party is welcome to fight that war, but it will reveal them to be the Dick Armey Astroturf movement some have suspected as being from the start.
I continue to argue, we are in this wild Interregnum Moment. The very fact that the elite keeps asking that the Occupy Movement create a leadership structure. And they refuse. May be they know what we do to leaders of nascent movements.