Archive for July, 2009
July 31st, 2009 by Jon Taplin
Right after the election, I wrote that the Republican Party was becoming a marginalized group of white southerners. The new poll about who thinks President Obama is not an American Citizen reinforces the notion that the Limbaugh/Beck/Palinistas are living in an alternative universe with their own media and their own reality.
In studying the history of the late 1860′s I would come across reports of “Johnny Reb” guerrilla soldiers who had some how never gotten the word that the Civil War was over and their side had lost. To a man they would chant “The South shall rise again!”
Richard Hofstadter in a seminal article published in 1964 called “The Paranoid Style in America Politics” shows that there is noting new in The Birthers.
But the modern right wing, as Daniel Bell has put it, feels dispossessed: America has been largely taken away from them and their kind, though they are determined to try to repossess it and to prevent the final destructive act of subversion. The old American virtues have already been eaten away by cosmopolitans and intellectuals; the old competitive capitalism has been gradually undermined by socialistic and communistic schemers; the old national security and independence have been destroyed by treasonous plots, having as their most powerful agents not merely outsiders and foreigners as of old but major statesmen who are at the very centers of American power. Their predecessors had discovered conspiracies; the modern radical right finds conspiracy to be betrayal from on high.
From the John Birch Society all the way back to the Ku Klux Klan of 1866, we have had to live with this aspect of America. It’s sad, but I’m afraid there is no avoiding it as long as kooks like Glen Beck have a platform.
July 30th, 2009 by Jon Taplin
Some extraordinarily good advice to Secretary Gates and the Joint Chiefs from Col. Timothy Reese, the senior U.S. Military advisor to the Iraq Security Forces.
Colonel Reese argues that Iraqi forces are competent enough to hold off Sunni insurgents, Shiite militias and other internal threats to the Iraqi government. Extending the American military presence in Iraq beyond 2010, he argues, will do little to improve the Iraqis’ military performance while fueling a growing resentment.
“As the old saying goes, ‘Guests, like fish, begin to smell after three days.’ ” Colonel Reese wrote. “Since the signing of the 2009 Security Agreement, we are guests in Iraq, and after six years in Iraq, we now smell bad to the Iraqi nose.”
The memo continued, referring to the Iraq Security Forces: “The massive partnering efforts of U.S. combat forces with I.S.F. isn’t yielding benefits commensurate with the effort and is now generating its own opposition. We should declare our intentions to withdraw all U.S. military forces from Iraq by August 2010. This would not be a strategic paradigm shift, but an acceleration of existing U.S. plans by some 15 months.”
As I have said before, this would be the first step in completely rethinking the Cost of Empire. Until the Military Budget falls to less than 40% of our annual discretionary spending, any hope of Rebuilding a Sustainable America is just a pipe dream.
July 29th, 2009 by Jon Taplin
This New York Times headline this morning: “Recovery Signs in Housing Market Stir Some Hope”.
This is probabily closer to reality:” 7/19/09 -Mortgage Default Crisis – Brutal Past Two-Months”
This chart is pretty scary. It says the foreclosure crisis is just starting.
July 29th, 2009 by Jon Taplin
I’ve been thinking a lot about the fate of the newspaper business in the last couple of months as I’ve been writing my book. Throughout the history of the U.S. that I’ve been tracing, newspapers and magazines have been a good business, but more importantly have provided an important platform for reformist writers to call out the high and mighty. Thoreau’s “On Civil Disobedience” and Twain’s “To the Person Sitting in Darkness” were two anti-imperialist essays that went very much against the jingoist sentiment of their time. Ida Tarbell’s long series on the Standard Oil Trust raised the issue of the cost of monopoly at just the point that Teddy Roosevelt, a young President, had the strength of character and the courage to take on the largest giant of the industrial age.
Which leads me to the giant of the digital age, Google, and the comments the Wall Street Journal’s Robert Thompson made to Charle Rose.
Mr Thomson said, “Google devalues everything it touches. Google is great for Google but it’s terrible for content providers.” He said that Google doesn’t distinguish between the quality of the content around which it serves up ads, it is concerned with quantity rather than quality.
What Thompson is getting at is that Google is attempting to repeal the law of supply and demand. In the early days of TV, every hour of prime time programming had eight 30 second TV ads. With three networks, the total supply of prime time spots per evening was 72. Needless to say, the demand for this scarce resource was large. But in Google’s World the total ad supply is infinite, but the demand is quite finite.
I’m afraid that this attempt to repeal the law of supply and demand is going to fail. Rates for Web banner ads seem to be falling and even though Google continues to make money on search advertising, no one else is able to really profit from the web ad boom.
There is no logical reason that the New York Times (in NBC’s Jeff Zucker’s words) should be “trading dollars (in print ads) for dimes (in web ads).” The ability of the web to target the ad to the individual reader should be more valuable. But because of Goggle’s infinite inventory, the web ad is much less valuable. Which brings me back to John D. Rockefeller. In 1872 when Rockefeller embarked on his “Cleveland Conquest” to drive all of the small oil refining competitors out of business by lowering his prices, he claimed he was doing it for the consumer and in the pursuit of efficiency. By 1885 Standard Oil had about 78% of the market, with no serious competitors. I know President Obama’s friend Eric Schmidt, Google’s CEO, says they are just pursuing a strategy of efficiency and helping the average consumer with their 70% market share of search advertising, but in that pursuit they are destroying the ad supported journalism business that has been the heart of American Democracy.
Is not an anti-trust review of Google in order?
July 28th, 2009 by Jon Taplin
Benedict Carey writes a good piece this morning on the role of instinct in saving soldier’s lives in combat.
Still, high-tech gear, while helping to reduce casualties, remains a mere supplement to the most sensitive detection system of all — the human brain. Troops on the ground, using only their senses and experience, are responsible for foiling many I.E.D. attacks, and, like Sergeant Tierney, they often cite a gut feeling or a hunch as their first clue…
“Not long ago people thought of emotions as old stuff, as just feelings — feelings that had little to do with rational decision making, or that got in the way of it,” said Dr. Antonio Damasio, director of the Brain and Creativity Institute at the University of Southern California. “Now that position has reversed. We understand emotions as practical action programs that work to solve a problem, often before we’re conscious of it. These processes are at work continually, in pilots, leaders of expeditions, parents, all of us.”
My colleague Manuel Castels is working closely with Dr. Damasio and tells me that our understanding of the brain’s role in creativity and survival is just in the early stages. Much more wonderful research will flow in the next few years.
My question is can instinct be taught or is it genetic?
July 27th, 2009 by Jon Taplin
One of the “wonderful legacies” of the Reagan Administration was the Prescription Drug Marketing Act of 1987. You can thank Ronnie and his deregulatory economists for the flood of erectile-disfunction ads on TV. In 1988 there was a total of $7 million spent on Direct to Consumer (DTC) prescription drug ads. Things have changed since then.
In 2008, pharmaceutical manufacturers spent about $4.8 billion on direct-to-consumer television, radio, magazine and newspaper advertising, according to Nielsen Media Research.
Now some lawmakers including Jerrold Nadler of New York are suggesting that the drug industry no longer get to deduct their DTC ad expenses from their taxes. Personally, I think they should not be allowed to advertise at all, because it’s a doctor’s choice what medications he prescribes. Somehow, even though they had no right before 1987 to DTC, Big Pharma has turned this into a First Amendment Issue.
“On First Amendment grounds, I am not going to say we will ban” drug advertising, said Mr. Nadler, who represents parts of Manhattan and Brooklyn. “But they should not be able to get taxpayers to subsidize it.”
I have one simple question that might clarify this. Who do you think pays for the $4.6 billion of advertising?
You and me.
July 27th, 2009 by Jon Taplin
One of the “wonderful legacies” of the Reagan Administration was the Prescription Drug Marketing Act of 1987. You can thank Ronnie and his deregulatory economists for the flood of erectile-disfunction ads on TV. In 1988 there was a total of $7 million spent on Direct to Consumer (DTC) prescription drug ads. Things have changed since then.
In 2008, pharmaceutical manufacturers spent about $4.8 billion on direct-to-consumer television, radio, magazine and newspaper advertising, according to Nielsen Media Research.
Now some lawmakers including Jerrold Nadler of New York are suggesting that the drug industry no longer get to deduct their DTC ad expenses from their taxes. Personally, I think they should not be allowed to advertise at all, because it’s a doctor’s choice what medications he prescribes. Somehow, even though they had no right before 1987 to DTC, Big Pharma has turned this into a First Amendment Issue.
“On First Amendment grounds, I am not going to say we will ban” drug advertising, said Mr. Nadler, who represents parts of Manhattan and Brooklyn. “But they should not be able to get taxpayers to subsidize it.”
I have one simple question that might clarify this. Who do you think pays for the $4.6 billion of advertising?
You and me.
July 25th, 2009 by Jon Taplin
My friend John Markoff has a great piece in the New York Times today about machines taking over the world.
A robot that can open doors and find electrical outlets to recharge itself. Computer viruses that no one can stop. Predator drones, which, though still controlled remotely by humans, come close to a machine that can kill autonomously.
Impressed and alarmed by advances in artificial intelligence, a group of computer scientists is debating whether there should be limits on research that might lead to loss of human control over computer-based systems that carry a growing share of society’s workload, from waging war to chatting with customers on the phone.
Their concern is that further advances could create profound social disruptions and even have dangerous consequences.
As examples, the scientists pointed to a number of technologies as diverse as experimental medical systems that interact with patients to simulate empathy, and computer worms and viruses that defy extermination and could thus be said to have reached a “cockroach” stage of machine intelligence.
Should we be worried?
July 24th, 2009 by Jon Taplin
Solomon Dwek, the man that became the confidential government informant in the case that led to the arrest yesterday of three New Jersey mayors and Five Rabbis on Money laundering and bribery, was originall arrested for passing a bad check. But what a check.
The man, Solomon Dwek, a failed real estate developer and philanthropist, had been arrested on charges of passing a bad $25 million check.
He did it by going to the drive-up window at his local PNC Bank.
July 22nd, 2009 by Jon Taplin
Occidental Petroleum just announced it has found a major new on-shore oil and gas field in California.
The Los Angeles company on Wednesday said it believes the field contains the equivalent of 150 million to 250 million barrels of oil and gas, which Occidental Chairman and Chief Executive Ray Irani called “the largest new oil and gas discovery made in California in more than 35 years.”
As part of the budget negotiations, our Governor has also opened up more drilling off of the Santa Barbara coast. So if this is the new California oil boom at least we better put in a severance tax like Colorado and Alaska.
At last year’s peak benchmark price of $130 for California crude, the take would be nearly $2 billion. Palin’s tax rate of 25% would generate $4 billion at a $70 price and nearly $8 billion at the top.