Change of Habit
Some very profound changes are taking place in the American economic psyche.
Personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income was 5.7% in April, the Commerce Department said. It was 4.5% in March and 4.1% in February. The 5.7% rate was the highest since 5.9% in February 1995; the personal savings level of $620.2 billion was the largest since records began in January 1959.
Kate M. Emminger (above) is symbolic of the new thrift society. She sold her car and now uses public transportation or San Francisco’s non-profit City CarShare service. Many people think this new Thrift Society is just a temporary adjustment to financial hard times, but I think it’s far more long-lasting. In my own case, my four year lease on a Toyota Prius was up this month and I bought the car, rather than turning it in for a new model. It’s running perfectly with 45,000 miles on it and I feel no need to change for “this year’s model”. In fact the whole American notion of “planned obsolescence” may have died with the Bush II administration. Last year, right after the election, we had a really good discussion of what a more sustainable economy based on savings and investment rather than debt and consumption might look like. With oil prices rising again, the need to continue the discussion on natural capitalism is even more important.
All of which goes towards saying that some of our contributors, who have been fear mongering about all the debt the government is selling are just wrong. If American’s saved $620 Billion (see above) where are they going to put it? In a money market fund paying less than 1%? Don’t think so. A Treasury paying 3.5% looks good. A municipal bond paying 5.5% tax free looks great. My classmate Vince Farrell cites Paul Krugman’s thesis of a “global savings glut” that has no place to go but U.S. Treasuries. And as for those that cited the rising interest rates last week. Well “never mind”.
The bond market went on a crazy ride last week with the yield on the 10 year bond moving from 3.53% to 3.73% (a huge move in the bond market) only to retrace itself and go below where it started and finish the week around 3.45%. And all of that in the space of just two days!
Anybody who thinks we are going back to the mall driven economy of 2005 is cracked. But because the transition from a 72% consumer driven GDP to a more reasonable 60% level will be painful, government investment in infrastructure will be the key to avoiding collapse. But for the old line libertarians, this is impossible to even contemplate, so they will deny reality.
I’d give up my 7 year old paid off prius if ZipCar or other service would come to Kansas City. I only drive 6000 miles a year as is.
I’d give up my 7 year old paid off prius if ZipCar or other service would come to Kansas City. I only drive 6000 miles a year as is.
You are being dis-ingenuous. The very next point made by Vince Ferrell:
“That will sort itself out but the yield on the ten year has moved from 2.06% at the end of 2008 to the current 3.45%”
http://www.cnbc.com/id/30866150
At this point, I’ll remind you, I’ve been speaking about the 30yr – because they affect the mortgage rate. But here’s the short math: the longer the term of the bond, the rate is growing like wildfire, because NO ONE believes the dollar wont be crushed. China will line up for the 2 year, 15 not so much.
This savings glut you speak of… smart investors are betting against the dollar. They are investing ALL over China.
Dude OWN UP – your guy, Bill Gross is reading Obama the riot act. Tim is specifically mentioning pay-go to China. You don’t even like Krugman, but now you got only him to support you.
Also, this savings rate you speak of, it is going to pay down debts everyone has growing for years.
You are being dis-ingenuous. The very next point made by Vince Ferrell:
“That will sort itself out but the yield on the ten year has moved from 2.06% at the end of 2008 to the current 3.45%”
http://www.cnbc.com/id/30866150
At this point, I’ll remind you, I’ve been speaking about the 30yr – because they affect the mortgage rate. But here’s the short math: the longer the term of the bond, the rate is growing like wildfire, because NO ONE believes the dollar wont be crushed. China will line up for the 2 year, 15 not so much.
This savings glut you speak of… smart investors are betting against the dollar. They are investing ALL over China.
Dude OWN UP – your guy, Bill Gross is reading Obama the riot act. Tim is specifically mentioning pay-go to China. You don’t even like Krugman, but now you got only him to support you.
Also, this savings rate you speak of, it is going to pay down debts everyone has growing for years.
The NYT article about Derivative regs being fought by the banks we own a lot of is only more evidence biz as usual is on its way back.
Obama has embraced the Wall Street greed mongers wholeheartedly – they are key staff members.
In DC we used to say “follow the money”. It is still flowing into DC pols who will give them waht they want – with some show dressing for “the little people”.
The NYT article about Derivative regs being fought by the banks we own a lot of is only more evidence biz as usual is on its way back.
Obama has embraced the Wall Street greed mongers wholeheartedly – they are key staff members.
In DC we used to say “follow the money”. It is still flowing into DC pols who will give them waht they want – with some show dressing for “the little people”.
The NYT article about Derivative regs being fought by the banks we own a lot of is only more evidence biz as usual is on its way back.
Obama has embraced the Wall Street greed mongers wholeheartedly – they are key staff members.
In DC we used to say “follow the money”. It is still flowing into DC pols who will give them waht they want – with some show dressing for “the little people”.
personal savings rates always go up in recessions–just because you have decided to buy your 4 year old hybrid doesn’t mean that two years from now everyone won’t get sick of their old things and start buying new again– I know that looks unlikely sitting in bankrupt California but when disposable income starts to rise people will open up their wallets– I’ll make book on that Jon–
personal savings rates always go up in recessions–just because you have decided to buy your 4 year old hybrid doesn’t mean that two years from now everyone won’t get sick of their old things and start buying new again– I know that looks unlikely sitting in bankrupt California but when disposable income starts to rise people will open up their wallets– I’ll make book on that Jon–
personal savings rates always go up in recessions–just because you have decided to buy your 4 year old hybrid doesn’t mean that two years from now everyone won’t get sick of their old things and start buying new again– I know that looks unlikely sitting in bankrupt California but when disposable income starts to rise people will open up their wallets– I’ll make book on that Jon–
Does all this mean that humans might have a prayer of coming into some kind of sustainable equilibrium with their planetary base?
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!
Just think how many Morgan Worstlers and Real Hollywood Wives there are, circling around out there, waiting for “normalcy” to return, and flogging the dead horses that power the bubble-blowing machinery, just waiting to ride the next great wave of theft from the future.
And Dubai is not even half built out yet, and what’s the prospects for bonuses at all the Big Banks this year, and is it or is it not still possible to drive up oil prices by unregulated speculative futures trading? But of course that’s just Chicago market forces at work, right?
And one has to ask where the $620 billion piggy-bank number comes from (our gov’t's published statistics being so notably unbiased and honest), and more important, how it stacks up to a national debt of $11.3 trillion and a plain old annual interest expense on that debt of half a trillion bucks?
And is it now the case that the great economic engine grinding away at the edges and surfaces and subterranean “resources” of the planet is actually producing an increasing amount of Real Wealth to support the native hopefulness and wishful thinking of all those booster capitalists out there? I tried to look up stats on the numbers of “distressed properties,” and all that came up were urls for the vultures trying to cash in off the misfortunes and failed greed of others. The numbers of such properties continue to grow, no?
The end of planned obsolescence? How I hope that’s right, but all the microprocessor stuff and “durable goods” I am aware of is neither fixable nor as durable as the old Frigidaire my folks bought in 1954 or thereabouts, that was still working in 2000 when my dad dies and the family homestead was broken up. Or the “ancient” Sharp microwave in the break room at work. The “channels of commerce” are still being stuffed with stuff that may end up in the Big Lots or Dollar Store, but is still short-lived junk.
Wouldn’t it be loverly if those “savings” somehow could be invested in stuff like bridge repairs and solar-smart-grid-less-is-more technologies, instead of being “invested” via Treasuries in a concern that spends, oh, 40% of its budget on preparing for wars that can’t happen, and fighting ones that get started by idiots for insane reasons like stealing oil from Iraq?
Why does it look more like a Ragnarok than an interregnum? Though maybe those chilly Nordic/Teutons were biased the wrong way on whether the world would end in fire or in ice…
Does all this mean that humans might have a prayer of coming into some kind of sustainable equilibrium with their planetary base?
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!
Just think how many Morgan Worstlers and Real Hollywood Wives there are, circling around out there, waiting for “normalcy” to return, and flogging the dead horses that power the bubble-blowing machinery, just waiting to ride the next great wave of theft from the future.
And Dubai is not even half built out yet, and what’s the prospects for bonuses at all the Big Banks this year, and is it or is it not still possible to drive up oil prices by unregulated speculative futures trading? But of course that’s just Chicago market forces at work, right?
And one has to ask where the $620 billion piggy-bank number comes from (our gov’t's published statistics being so notably unbiased and honest), and more important, how it stacks up to a national debt of $11.3 trillion and a plain old annual interest expense on that debt of half a trillion bucks?
And is it now the case that the great economic engine grinding away at the edges and surfaces and subterranean “resources” of the planet is actually producing an increasing amount of Real Wealth to support the native hopefulness and wishful thinking of all those booster capitalists out there? I tried to look up stats on the numbers of “distressed properties,” and all that came up were urls for the vultures trying to cash in off the misfortunes and failed greed of others. The numbers of such properties continue to grow, no?
The end of planned obsolescence? How I hope that’s right, but all the microprocessor stuff and “durable goods” I am aware of is neither fixable nor as durable as the old Frigidaire my folks bought in 1954 or thereabouts, that was still working in 2000 when my dad dies and the family homestead was broken up. Or the “ancient” Sharp microwave in the break room at work. The “channels of commerce” are still being stuffed with stuff that may end up in the Big Lots or Dollar Store, but is still short-lived junk.
Wouldn’t it be loverly if those “savings” somehow could be invested in stuff like bridge repairs and solar-smart-grid-less-is-more technologies, instead of being “invested” via Treasuries in a concern that spends, oh, 40% of its budget on preparing for wars that can’t happen, and fighting ones that get started by idiots for insane reasons like stealing oil from Iraq?
Why does it look more like a Ragnarok than an interregnum? Though maybe those chilly Nordic/Teutons were biased the wrong way on whether the world would end in fire or in ice…
“Chinese assets are very safe,” Geithner said in response to a question after a speech at Peking University, where he studied Chinese as a student in the 1980s.
His answer drew loud laughter from his student audience, reflecting skepticism in China about the wisdom of a developing country accumulating a vast stockpile of foreign reserves instead of spending the money to raise living standards at home.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSTRE54U0W320090601
Good lord that’d be funny to see.
“Chinese assets are very safe,” Geithner said in response to a question after a speech at Peking University, where he studied Chinese as a student in the 1980s.
His answer drew loud laughter from his student audience, reflecting skepticism in China about the wisdom of a developing country accumulating a vast stockpile of foreign reserves instead of spending the money to raise living standards at home.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSTRE54U0W320090601
Good lord that’d be funny to see.
Morgan,
I already went looking on youtube for video of Geithner failing the ‘laugh test’ … doesn’t appear to have been posted just yet.
Meanwhile, here’s a youtube channel for all those California Dreamers, dreamin’ of a constitutional convention.
Morgan,
I already went looking on youtube for video of Geithner failing the ‘laugh test’ … doesn’t appear to have been posted just yet.
Meanwhile, here’s a youtube channel for all those California Dreamers, dreamin’ of a constitutional convention.
Morgan,
I already went looking on youtube for video of Geithner failing the ‘laugh test’ … doesn’t appear to have been posted just yet.
Meanwhile, here’s a youtube channel for all those California Dreamers, dreamin’ of a constitutional convention.
It’s small and growing slowly, but there is definitely a movement toward living within our means. There has to be a shrinking of the economy…think of how much of pre-meltdown GDP was fake: fake profits on financial products, fake mortgages on unaffordable houses.
It’s small and growing slowly, but there is definitely a movement toward living within our means. There has to be a shrinking of the economy…think of how much of pre-meltdown GDP was fake: fake profits on financial products, fake mortgages on unaffordable houses.
It’s small and growing slowly, but there is definitely a movement toward living within our means. There has to be a shrinking of the economy…think of how much of pre-meltdown GDP was fake: fake profits on financial products, fake mortgages on unaffordable houses.
Morgan-Bill Clinton and Robert Rubin failed as transformative politicians because they were bullied by the bond market. I don’t give a f**k what Bill Gross says right now because he’s talking his book. Every basis point the long bond rises he’s losing millions of dollars.
Morgan-Bill Clinton and Robert Rubin failed as transformative politicians because they were bullied by the bond market. I don’t give a f**k what Bill Gross says right now because he’s talking his book. Every basis point the long bond rises he’s losing millions of dollars.
Morgan-Bill Clinton and Robert Rubin failed as transformative politicians because they were bullied by the bond market. I don’t give a f**k what Bill Gross says right now because he’s talking his book. Every basis point the long bond rises he’s losing millions of dollars.
Doug-You are still not addressing my point. Can the U.S. sustain an economy that is based (72%) on going to the mall as opposed to producing goods and services that the rest of the world wants to buy?
Doug-You are still not addressing my point. Can the U.S. sustain an economy that is based (72%) on going to the mall as opposed to producing goods and services that the rest of the world wants to buy?
Jon’s distinction between a “mall culture” and a “thrift society” is pretty captivating. I suppose that by “mall culture” we refer to, as it were, consumerism in economics, status-chasing in sociology, heteronomy in psychology, vacuity in philosophy, etc.
Perhaps a “thrift society” could be crafted by us collectively as a prospective alternative. That would be nice.
@Seth,
Thank you for the link to the Governor’s candid advocacy of a constitutional convention. Even though the devil, as we know, wears Prada, it was refreshing to see Mr. Schwarzenegger naming the names of those he considers hostile to California’s fiscal responsibility. Some of them were statewide office-holders or else high-ranking legislators, but others were judges with specific policy briefs, as distinquished from constitutional ones.
Finger-pointing aside, I suspect that California’s governor, in decrying the unaffordability in California of judicial activism, was giving the finger to a U.S. president who just refused to cover California’s immediate debts while nominating an activist for appointment to the U.S. Supreme Court.
Jon’s distinction between a “mall culture” and a “thrift society” is pretty captivating. I suppose that by “mall culture” we refer to, as it were, consumerism in economics, status-chasing in sociology, heteronomy in psychology, vacuity in philosophy, etc.
Perhaps a “thrift society” could be crafted by us collectively as a prospective alternative. That would be nice.
@Seth,
Thank you for the link to the Governor’s candid advocacy of a constitutional convention. Even though the devil, as we know, wears Prada, it was refreshing to see Mr. Schwarzenegger naming the names of those he considers hostile to California’s fiscal responsibility. Some of them were statewide office-holders or else high-ranking legislators, but others were judges with specific policy briefs, as distinquished from constitutional ones.
Finger-pointing aside, I suspect that California’s governor, in decrying the unaffordability in California of judicial activism, was giving the finger to a U.S. president who just refused to cover California’s immediate debts while nominating an activist for appointment to the U.S. Supreme Court.
Jon’s distinction between a “mall culture” and a “thrift society” is pretty captivating. I suppose that by “mall culture” we refer to, as it were, consumerism in economics, status-chasing in sociology, heteronomy in psychology, vacuity in philosophy, etc.
Perhaps a “thrift society” could be crafted by us collectively as a prospective alternative. That would be nice.
@Seth,
Thank you for the link to the Governor’s candid advocacy of a constitutional convention. Even though the devil, as we know, wears Prada, it was refreshing to see Mr. Schwarzenegger naming the names of those he considers hostile to California’s fiscal responsibility. Some of them were statewide office-holders or else high-ranking legislators, but others were judges with specific policy briefs, as distinquished from constitutional ones.
Finger-pointing aside, I suspect that California’s governor, in decrying the unaffordability in California of judicial activism, was giving the finger to a U.S. president who just refused to cover California’s immediate debts while nominating an activist for appointment to the U.S. Supreme Court.
You got the fake part just exactly right. Seems to me that the various parts of the “bailout culture” are built on the same sand, the hope that somehow, someday, people in the future will make good on a totally inebriated dumptruck full of TARPs and other Funny Munny. About the only noise I’ve heard from Morgan (somebody talks long enough and they’re bound to issue a few sentences that make sense) is the bit about PRINTING MONEY.
Down here in FL we still have a load of fading blue TARPs covering the holes blown in the nice secure roofs of thousands of houses (a fraction, likely, of the now-foreclosed-or-soon-to-be “inventory” that affects the real estate market. Which has for decades had built-in bubble blowers like 10 or 7% “commissions” paid to Realtors (have to capitalize it here, state law and intellectual property you know) many of whom, from years of personal experience, often do little but insert the data in the MLS form.
People I know are talking about all the stuff they are going to buy when the credit card companies and banks and such “loosen up” again. It’s still about Rolex and Porsche (that’s “por-sha,” please.
Yes, some folks are trying urban gardening. Our wise city fathers, seeing their opportunities to make up a portion of the budget shortfall, have required a permit and instituted ordinances that make the activity less than attractive. But a lot of desperate people are banking (pardon the really weak pun) on a return to go-go-a-go-go again. Check what’s up on the Street, again. Think “the Market” will ever again be free from “irrational exuberance” or really neat manipulations? And our new Change Administration doesn’t seem to be Changing any financial fundamental problems
You got the fake part just exactly right. Seems to me that the various parts of the “bailout culture” are built on the same sand, the hope that somehow, someday, people in the future will make good on a totally inebriated dumptruck full of TARPs and other Funny Munny. About the only noise I’ve heard from Morgan (somebody talks long enough and they’re bound to issue a few sentences that make sense) is the bit about PRINTING MONEY.
Down here in FL we still have a load of fading blue TARPs covering the holes blown in the nice secure roofs of thousands of houses (a fraction, likely, of the now-foreclosed-or-soon-to-be “inventory” that affects the real estate market. Which has for decades had built-in bubble blowers like 10 or 7% “commissions” paid to Realtors (have to capitalize it here, state law and intellectual property you know) many of whom, from years of personal experience, often do little but insert the data in the MLS form.
People I know are talking about all the stuff they are going to buy when the credit card companies and banks and such “loosen up” again. It’s still about Rolex and Porsche (that’s “por-sha,” please.
Yes, some folks are trying urban gardening. Our wise city fathers, seeing their opportunities to make up a portion of the budget shortfall, have required a permit and instituted ordinances that make the activity less than attractive. But a lot of desperate people are banking (pardon the really weak pun) on a return to go-go-a-go-go again. Check what’s up on the Street, again. Think “the Market” will ever again be free from “irrational exuberance” or really neat manipulations? And our new Change Administration doesn’t seem to be Changing any financial fundamental problems
You got the fake part just exactly right. Seems to me that the various parts of the “bailout culture” are built on the same sand, the hope that somehow, someday, people in the future will make good on a totally inebriated dumptruck full of TARPs and other Funny Munny. About the only noise I’ve heard from Morgan (somebody talks long enough and they’re bound to issue a few sentences that make sense) is the bit about PRINTING MONEY.
Down here in FL we still have a load of fading blue TARPs covering the holes blown in the nice secure roofs of thousands of houses (a fraction, likely, of the now-foreclosed-or-soon-to-be “inventory” that affects the real estate market. Which has for decades had built-in bubble blowers like 10 or 7% “commissions” paid to Realtors (have to capitalize it here, state law and intellectual property you know) many of whom, from years of personal experience, often do little but insert the data in the MLS form.
People I know are talking about all the stuff they are going to buy when the credit card companies and banks and such “loosen up” again. It’s still about Rolex and Porsche (that’s “por-sha,” please.
Yes, some folks are trying urban gardening. Our wise city fathers, seeing their opportunities to make up a portion of the budget shortfall, have required a permit and instituted ordinances that make the activity less than attractive. But a lot of desperate people are banking (pardon the really weak pun) on a return to go-go-a-go-go again. Check what’s up on the Street, again. Think “the Market” will ever again be free from “irrational exuberance” or really neat manipulations? And our new Change Administration doesn’t seem to be Changing any financial fundamental problems
It’s a finger of a kind, if you see what I mean…
It’s a finger of a kind, if you see what I mean…
It’s a finger of a kind, if you see what I mean…
And Jon, one little data point on the “change” board: The F-22 flies off into another corner of the great borderless chaos of the “international economy.” Think it will ever end short of that dead end?
http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSTRE55102920090602?feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews
And Jon, one little data point on the “change” board: The F-22 flies off into another corner of the great borderless chaos of the “international economy.” Think it will ever end short of that dead end?
http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSTRE55102920090602?feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews
Ok, now that I’ve pretty much put Jon back on his heels on the bond market… we’ll just have to wait to see who is correct, let’s move on to “thrift society.”
The two sectors of the economy I don’t want to discuss are: housing and transportation, because I believe to some degree Jon is correct. On autos… if we improve to 12M new cars a year, by my math thats everyone waiting an extra 1.5-2 years to get a new car. That’d be nice – HOWEVER, it will slow down the fleet turnover – so we’ll be using the older less fuel efficient cars for a longer period of time. We can loosen CAFE standards and that’ll be ok.
On housing, I think Jon agrees with me that we should allow anyone who wants a greencard to move here and buy a house. We should institute the same policy for H-1B applicants.
I do think we are going to see a continued move towards urban living amongst the nations young (which is good), but in 20 years, they’ll start to demand electric trains OUT to their greener McMansions, and we’ll come full circle.
—-
But on the rest of the economy – in particular electronics and food, Jon what exactly are you expecting will happen? Less iterations of the iPhone? Less competition between Intel and AMD? Will the Taiwanese memory and LCD machines stop making TVs get bigger? I for one am totally psyched that by 2010, we should see 60-70″ TVs for under $1000 (in today’s dollars).
On food, will people eat less? Do you just want them to eat less McDonalds? Or do you want more people to be forced to be vegetarians for economic reasons (taxing meat)?
Maybe you want less IKEA disposable furniture? But aren’t they doing even better in this downturn?
Not to be a pain, but could you really flesh out the changes you are expecting? Maybe close your eyes, and describe in depth what we look like in your mind in 20 years time?
Ok, now that I’ve pretty much put Jon back on his heels on the bond market… we’ll just have to wait to see who is correct, let’s move on to “thrift society.”
The two sectors of the economy I don’t want to discuss are: housing and transportation, because I believe to some degree Jon is correct. On autos… if we improve to 12M new cars a year, by my math thats everyone waiting an extra 1.5-2 years to get a new car. That’d be nice – HOWEVER, it will slow down the fleet turnover – so we’ll be using the older less fuel efficient cars for a longer period of time. We can loosen CAFE standards and that’ll be ok.
On housing, I think Jon agrees with me that we should allow anyone who wants a greencard to move here and buy a house. We should institute the same policy for H-1B applicants.
I do think we are going to see a continued move towards urban living amongst the nations young (which is good), but in 20 years, they’ll start to demand electric trains OUT to their greener McMansions, and we’ll come full circle.
—-
But on the rest of the economy – in particular electronics and food, Jon what exactly are you expecting will happen? Less iterations of the iPhone? Less competition between Intel and AMD? Will the Taiwanese memory and LCD machines stop making TVs get bigger? I for one am totally psyched that by 2010, we should see 60-70″ TVs for under $1000 (in today’s dollars).
On food, will people eat less? Do you just want them to eat less McDonalds? Or do you want more people to be forced to be vegetarians for economic reasons (taxing meat)?
Maybe you want less IKEA disposable furniture? But aren’t they doing even better in this downturn?
Not to be a pain, but could you really flesh out the changes you are expecting? Maybe close your eyes, and describe in depth what we look like in your mind in 20 years time?
Ok, now that I’ve pretty much put Jon back on his heels on the bond market… we’ll just have to wait to see who is correct, let’s move on to “thrift society.”
The two sectors of the economy I don’t want to discuss are: housing and transportation, because I believe to some degree Jon is correct. On autos… if we improve to 12M new cars a year, by my math thats everyone waiting an extra 1.5-2 years to get a new car. That’d be nice – HOWEVER, it will slow down the fleet turnover – so we’ll be using the older less fuel efficient cars for a longer period of time. We can loosen CAFE standards and that’ll be ok.
On housing, I think Jon agrees with me that we should allow anyone who wants a greencard to move here and buy a house. We should institute the same policy for H-1B applicants.
I do think we are going to see a continued move towards urban living amongst the nations young (which is good), but in 20 years, they’ll start to demand electric trains OUT to their greener McMansions, and we’ll come full circle.
—-
But on the rest of the economy – in particular electronics and food, Jon what exactly are you expecting will happen? Less iterations of the iPhone? Less competition between Intel and AMD? Will the Taiwanese memory and LCD machines stop making TVs get bigger? I for one am totally psyched that by 2010, we should see 60-70″ TVs for under $1000 (in today’s dollars).
On food, will people eat less? Do you just want them to eat less McDonalds? Or do you want more people to be forced to be vegetarians for economic reasons (taxing meat)?
Maybe you want less IKEA disposable furniture? But aren’t they doing even better in this downturn?
Not to be a pain, but could you really flesh out the changes you are expecting? Maybe close your eyes, and describe in depth what we look like in your mind in 20 years time?
Walk down Warstler Lane and here’s what you see in his yard, 20 years down the road:
http://channel.nationalgeographic.com/episode/aftermath-population-zero-3225
Walk down Warstler Lane and here’s what you see in his yard, 20 years down the road:
http://channel.nationalgeographic.com/episode/aftermath-population-zero-3225
Walk down Warstler Lane and here’s what you see in his yard, 20 years down the road:
http://channel.nationalgeographic.com/episode/aftermath-population-zero-3225
@ Warstler: IIRC, I think Jon means a change toward a society where every form of social interaction and entertainment isn’t made by purchasing an experience — whether it’s movies, mini golf, bowling, shopping for no other reason than to shop. Instead of doing things on their own at home, people even now go somewhere else to experience someone else’s prepared form of interaction, all paid for with a credit card.
It’s a fucking wonderland of $4 lattes and $40 vodka brands, built on money nobody actually had, reinforced by advertisements that made it all seem normal and socially desirable
@ Warstler: IIRC, I think Jon means a change toward a society where every form of social interaction and entertainment isn’t made by purchasing an experience — whether it’s movies, mini golf, bowling, shopping for no other reason than to shop. Instead of doing things on their own at home, people even now go somewhere else to experience someone else’s prepared form of interaction, all paid for with a credit card.
It’s a fucking wonderland of $4 lattes and $40 vodka brands, built on money nobody actually had, reinforced by advertisements that made it all seem normal and socially desirable
@ Warstler: IIRC, I think Jon means a change toward a society where every form of social interaction and entertainment isn’t made by purchasing an experience — whether it’s movies, mini golf, bowling, shopping for no other reason than to shop. Instead of doing things on their own at home, people even now go somewhere else to experience someone else’s prepared form of interaction, all paid for with a credit card.
It’s a fucking wonderland of $4 lattes and $40 vodka brands, built on money nobody actually had, reinforced by advertisements that made it all seem normal and socially desirable
Why would CAFE standards have to be loosened if we keep driving older cars? CAFE only applies to new cars being sold, not what is currently driven.
I do think some sort of incentive towards getting less efficient vehicles off the road would be a good thing.
Why would CAFE standards have to be loosened if we keep driving older cars? CAFE only applies to new cars being sold, not what is currently driven.
I do think some sort of incentive towards getting less efficient vehicles off the road would be a good thing.
Why would CAFE standards have to be loosened if we keep driving older cars? CAFE only applies to new cars being sold, not what is currently driven.
I do think some sort of incentive towards getting less efficient vehicles off the road would be a good thing.
kevin, I’m assuming less new cars sold each year means it takes longer fora real % of cars to be fuel efficient. Just saw this on CNBC, GM sold 190K cars sold last month – 1700 were hybrids.
This is great:
http://media.cnbc.com/i/CNBC/components/Syndicated%20Video%20Player/videomodule.swf?id=1139175570&pcode=cnbcplayershare&play=&base=http://plus.cnbc.com/stickers/partners/cnbcplayershare/
kevin, I’m assuming less new cars sold each year means it takes longer fora real % of cars to be fuel efficient. Just saw this on CNBC, GM sold 190K cars sold last month – 1700 were hybrids.
This is great:
http://media.cnbc.com/i/CNBC/components/Syndicated%20Video%20Player/videomodule.swf?id=1139175570&pcode=cnbcplayershare&play=&base=http://plus.cnbc.com/stickers/partners/cnbcplayershare/
@ Jon,
That’s a cherry ‘vette, man. You could be forgiven your “mall culture”.
@JTM,
Doesn’t make me an expert, but my family made some money in Southern California on advanced airframe technology for the U.S. military, and benefitted from a trusted relationship with Lockheed, the manufacturer of the F-22 and of so many other fabled warplanes. I now live in the place in which the F-22 has been manufactured, and though it’s a formidable plane, still we stand to lose almost 4,000 jobs in this place as a result of DoD’s fickleness. DoD is dirt here right now, and so, necessarily, is Obama.
As the F-22 is manufactured and therefore tested here, it overflies me frequently. It’s characteristics are truly intimidating. Just what the doctor ordered.
I wonder whether you understand the crucial importance of U.S. air superiority in securing our sleep. Consider, for example, the Cuban Missile Crisis.
Still, this is crocodile tears, as the replacement aircraft, the multiforce F-35, is–surprise, surprise, surprise!–a Lockheed one as well. We’ve still more generations of aircraft whence these have come, provided we are mature and steady in our dealings with those who must develop and deliver such weapons.
@ Jon,
That’s a cherry ‘vette, man. You could be forgiven your “mall culture”.
@JTM,
Doesn’t make me an expert, but my family made some money in Southern California on advanced airframe technology for the U.S. military, and benefitted from a trusted relationship with Lockheed, the manufacturer of the F-22 and of so many other fabled warplanes. I now live in the place in which the F-22 has been manufactured, and though it’s a formidable plane, still we stand to lose almost 4,000 jobs in this place as a result of DoD’s fickleness. DoD is dirt here right now, and so, necessarily, is Obama.
As the F-22 is manufactured and therefore tested here, it overflies me frequently. It’s characteristics are truly intimidating. Just what the doctor ordered.
I wonder whether you understand the crucial importance of U.S. air superiority in securing our sleep. Consider, for example, the Cuban Missile Crisis.
Still, this is crocodile tears, as the replacement aircraft, the multiforce F-35, is–surprise, surprise, surprise!–a Lockheed one as well. We’ve still more generations of aircraft whence these have come, provided we are mature and steady in our dealings with those who must develop and deliver such weapons.
@ Jon,
That’s a cherry ‘vette, man. You could be forgiven your “mall culture”.
@JTM,
Doesn’t make me an expert, but my family made some money in Southern California on advanced airframe technology for the U.S. military, and benefitted from a trusted relationship with Lockheed, the manufacturer of the F-22 and of so many other fabled warplanes. I now live in the place in which the F-22 has been manufactured, and though it’s a formidable plane, still we stand to lose almost 4,000 jobs in this place as a result of DoD’s fickleness. DoD is dirt here right now, and so, necessarily, is Obama.
As the F-22 is manufactured and therefore tested here, it overflies me frequently. It’s characteristics are truly intimidating. Just what the doctor ordered.
I wonder whether you understand the crucial importance of U.S. air superiority in securing our sleep. Consider, for example, the Cuban Missile Crisis.
Still, this is crocodile tears, as the replacement aircraft, the multiforce F-35, is–surprise, surprise, surprise!–a Lockheed one as well. We’ve still more generations of aircraft whence these have come, provided we are mature and steady in our dealings with those who must develop and deliver such weapons.
Hugo, cybermemories are short, we’ve plowed this same rut before. I am your enemy, I am sure you will agree, even though I volunteered in 1966 and did my time in Vietnam (please, don’t “thank me for my service” – it was a fool’s errand) because my (and others’, I hope) notions of waste and foolishness threaten the livelihoods of (the F-22 partisans said in their pitch to Congress) “45,000 high-paying middle class jobs.”
I used to be really impressed by high-performance, high-tech “air superiority aircraft” too. Loved Jane’s and Aviation Week and Space Technology and the macho covers of Popular Mechanics and Mechanix Illustrated, “hot new weapons systems” zipping around blasting cannon and laser fire to Fry The Hated Enemy. Until I spent some time in the military, read a little more, observed billions and trillions being siphoned off to build weapons with no purpose (yah, I know you can quote chapter and verse on all the “threats” the F-22 and F-35 can “defeat,” “threats” built by idiots on other sides of tribal lines who use the same arguments or just the raw power of the state to take Real Wealth from productive people to build these war devices, and the “doctrines” that guide “our” fearless leaders in their undisclosed-location bunkers.) You say the outcome of Cuban Missile Crisis was influenced by “American air superiority?” Not the history I read, Migs and such being what they were relative to the then front-line US aircraft. I also remember being lied to about a “bomber gap” and a “missile gap” and a “window of vulnerability,” each with its own seductive core of absolute falsehood peddled by absolute fearmongers, including a whole lot of people whose jobs depended on the MIC continuing to suck off 30 or 40% of the GDP. And who treated any voice that asked “Is this trip necessary?” as Commie-symps or limp-wristed appeasing liberals.
And what’s the problem? Even if the Line gets “shut down” to sales to the US guv’mint after several hundred $350 million (apiece) aircraft, our great loyal Red-White-and-Green Lockheed-Northrop will now be marketing these superior weapons to potentially unstable and potentially competitive tribes, or our friends the Japanese if I read right. And as you note, maybe with a bit of smug satisfaction, since you (the generic “you,” for those who profit or “make their living” from these gadgets that the fighter partisans are fighting tooth and nail to protect against the RPV clan that can do the same “mission” for 1/100th the cost since there’s no need to protect and transport a big protoplasmic ego up front) the fraud goes on with the F-35 (selected over what many consider to be a better aircraft, how did that happen?)
T”he crucial importance of U.S. air superiority in securing our sleep”? I am NOT sleeping better knowing how the international arms trade works. I am definitely not sleeping better knowing that a cult of “Christian” Rapture believers is operating the Pantex plant down in Amarillo, where “our” nukular weapons are assembled and repaired and such, in the hope that they are doing God’s work in hastening Armageddon. People whose sleep is improved by the notion that their economy and culture are running on a treadmill that is steadily approaching a vertical slope – well, what can I say? I hear Lunesta and Rozerem and trazodone and Ativan work wonders, too. And are equally, seductively, addictive.
But hey, you know you are on the winning team here. The culture has sort of been able, with increasing effort, to support that 30 or 40% off the top (or more, pushed into “out-years” for another generation to pay for with Real Wealth somehow) without withering altogether before the recent “bailouts.” (Providing a very expensive safe exit for that protoplasmic ego up front, from an aircraft killed by a missile that cost a fraction of the aircraft’s cost or fallen apart due to structural booboos or maintenance errors or midair collisions or even friendly fire or pilot error, is one of the Articles of Faith in the Infinitely Expensive Doctrine that preaches ‘security at any price, even if the treatment is more mortal than any disease.)
People in my tribe are being wiped out at a steady pace, since the MIC people know that the REAL enemy is not some freak in a funny uniform with a peaked cap and a lot of braid and self-awarded medals, it is some guy who can shout out REAL LOUD that the General Has No Clothes! Which of course ain’t gonna happen.
But don’t you worry, buddy, the wealth transfer machinery of the MIC will preserve that sacred lifestyle against all enemies, especially the domestic ones.
.
Hugo, cybermemories are short, we’ve plowed this same rut before. I am your enemy, I am sure you will agree, even though I volunteered in 1966 and did my time in Vietnam (please, don’t “thank me for my service” – it was a fool’s errand) because my (and others’, I hope) notions of waste and foolishness threaten the livelihoods of (the F-22 partisans said in their pitch to Congress) “45,000 high-paying middle class jobs.”
I used to be really impressed by high-performance, high-tech “air superiority aircraft” too. Loved Jane’s and Aviation Week and Space Technology and the macho covers of Popular Mechanics and Mechanix Illustrated, “hot new weapons systems” zipping around blasting cannon and laser fire to Fry The Hated Enemy. Until I spent some time in the military, read a little more, observed billions and trillions being siphoned off to build weapons with no purpose (yah, I know you can quote chapter and verse on all the “threats” the F-22 and F-35 can “defeat,” “threats” built by idiots on other sides of tribal lines who use the same arguments or just the raw power of the state to take Real Wealth from productive people to build these war devices, and the “doctrines” that guide “our” fearless leaders in their undisclosed-location bunkers.) You say the outcome of Cuban Missile Crisis was influenced by “American air superiority?” Not the history I read, Migs and such being what they were relative to the then front-line US aircraft. I also remember being lied to about a “bomber gap” and a “missile gap” and a “window of vulnerability,” each with its own seductive core of absolute falsehood peddled by absolute fearmongers, including a whole lot of people whose jobs depended on the MIC continuing to suck off 30 or 40% of the GDP. And who treated any voice that asked “Is this trip necessary?” as Commie-symps or limp-wristed appeasing liberals.
And what’s the problem? Even if the Line gets “shut down” to sales to the US guv’mint after several hundred $350 million (apiece) aircraft, our great loyal Red-White-and-Green Lockheed-Northrop will now be marketing these superior weapons to potentially unstable and potentially competitive tribes, or our friends the Japanese if I read right. And as you note, maybe with a bit of smug satisfaction, since you (the generic “you,” for those who profit or “make their living” from these gadgets that the fighter partisans are fighting tooth and nail to protect against the RPV clan that can do the same “mission” for 1/100th the cost since there’s no need to protect and transport a big protoplasmic ego up front) the fraud goes on with the F-35 (selected over what many consider to be a better aircraft, how did that happen?)
T”he crucial importance of U.S. air superiority in securing our sleep”? I am NOT sleeping better knowing how the international arms trade works. I am definitely not sleeping better knowing that a cult of “Christian” Rapture believers is operating the Pantex plant down in Amarillo, where “our” nukular weapons are assembled and repaired and such, in the hope that they are doing God’s work in hastening Armageddon. People whose sleep is improved by the notion that their economy and culture are running on a treadmill that is steadily approaching a vertical slope – well, what can I say? I hear Lunesta and Rozerem and trazodone and Ativan work wonders, too. And are equally, seductively, addictive.
But hey, you know you are on the winning team here. The culture has sort of been able, with increasing effort, to support that 30 or 40% off the top (or more, pushed into “out-years” for another generation to pay for with Real Wealth somehow) without withering altogether before the recent “bailouts.” (Providing a very expensive safe exit for that protoplasmic ego up front, from an aircraft killed by a missile that cost a fraction of the aircraft’s cost or fallen apart due to structural booboos or maintenance errors or midair collisions or even friendly fire or pilot error, is one of the Articles of Faith in the Infinitely Expensive Doctrine that preaches ‘security at any price, even if the treatment is more mortal than any disease.)
People in my tribe are being wiped out at a steady pace, since the MIC people know that the REAL enemy is not some freak in a funny uniform with a peaked cap and a lot of braid and self-awarded medals, it is some guy who can shout out REAL LOUD that the General Has No Clothes! Which of course ain’t gonna happen.
But don’t you worry, buddy, the wealth transfer machinery of the MIC will preserve that sacred lifestyle against all enemies, especially the domestic ones.
.
Hugo, cybermemories are short, we’ve plowed this same rut before. I am your enemy, I am sure you will agree, even though I volunteered in 1966 and did my time in Vietnam (please, don’t “thank me for my service” – it was a fool’s errand) because my (and others’, I hope) notions of waste and foolishness threaten the livelihoods of (the F-22 partisans said in their pitch to Congress) “45,000 high-paying middle class jobs.”
I used to be really impressed by high-performance, high-tech “air superiority aircraft” too. Loved Jane’s and Aviation Week and Space Technology and the macho covers of Popular Mechanics and Mechanix Illustrated, “hot new weapons systems” zipping around blasting cannon and laser fire to Fry The Hated Enemy. Until I spent some time in the military, read a little more, observed billions and trillions being siphoned off to build weapons with no purpose (yah, I know you can quote chapter and verse on all the “threats” the F-22 and F-35 can “defeat,” “threats” built by idiots on other sides of tribal lines who use the same arguments or just the raw power of the state to take Real Wealth from productive people to build these war devices, and the “doctrines” that guide “our” fearless leaders in their undisclosed-location bunkers.) You say the outcome of Cuban Missile Crisis was influenced by “American air superiority?” Not the history I read, Migs and such being what they were relative to the then front-line US aircraft. I also remember being lied to about a “bomber gap” and a “missile gap” and a “window of vulnerability,” each with its own seductive core of absolute falsehood peddled by absolute fearmongers, including a whole lot of people whose jobs depended on the MIC continuing to suck off 30 or 40% of the GDP. And who treated any voice that asked “Is this trip necessary?” as Commie-symps or limp-wristed appeasing liberals.
And what’s the problem? Even if the Line gets “shut down” to sales to the US guv’mint after several hundred $350 million (apiece) aircraft, our great loyal Red-White-and-Green Lockheed-Northrop will now be marketing these superior weapons to potentially unstable and potentially competitive tribes, or our friends the Japanese if I read right. And as you note, maybe with a bit of smug satisfaction, since you (the generic “you,” for those who profit or “make their living” from these gadgets that the fighter partisans are fighting tooth and nail to protect against the RPV clan that can do the same “mission” for 1/100th the cost since there’s no need to protect and transport a big protoplasmic ego up front) the fraud goes on with the F-35 (selected over what many consider to be a better aircraft, how did that happen?)
T”he crucial importance of U.S. air superiority in securing our sleep”? I am NOT sleeping better knowing how the international arms trade works. I am definitely not sleeping better knowing that a cult of “Christian” Rapture believers is operating the Pantex plant down in Amarillo, where “our” nukular weapons are assembled and repaired and such, in the hope that they are doing God’s work in hastening Armageddon. People whose sleep is improved by the notion that their economy and culture are running on a treadmill that is steadily approaching a vertical slope – well, what can I say? I hear Lunesta and Rozerem and trazodone and Ativan work wonders, too. And are equally, seductively, addictive.
But hey, you know you are on the winning team here. The culture has sort of been able, with increasing effort, to support that 30 or 40% off the top (or more, pushed into “out-years” for another generation to pay for with Real Wealth somehow) without withering altogether before the recent “bailouts.” (Providing a very expensive safe exit for that protoplasmic ego up front, from an aircraft killed by a missile that cost a fraction of the aircraft’s cost or fallen apart due to structural booboos or maintenance errors or midair collisions or even friendly fire or pilot error, is one of the Articles of Faith in the Infinitely Expensive Doctrine that preaches ‘security at any price, even if the treatment is more mortal than any disease.)
People in my tribe are being wiped out at a steady pace, since the MIC people know that the REAL enemy is not some freak in a funny uniform with a peaked cap and a lot of braid and self-awarded medals, it is some guy who can shout out REAL LOUD that the General Has No Clothes! Which of course ain’t gonna happen.
But don’t you worry, buddy, the wealth transfer machinery of the MIC will preserve that sacred lifestyle against all enemies, especially the domestic ones.
.
Omigod JTM,
You’re not my “cyberenemy” at all. Stop that, please. I remember you well. And I listen.
Please understand that sometimes I blog as pure assertion of self–as opinion–and sometimes I revert to the reporter or else the policy wonk that I once was, so that sometimes I’m opinining and at other times I’m just reporting. (Admitting my biases as I go along, as also I’m trained as an anthro.)
In view of your familiarity with the subject, I should think that you’d value my report of the mood toward the Administration here in Marietta, Georgia, where the F-22 is based. The effective killing of the F-22 project, a move that the Hill obviously recognizes already as a mistake, has poisoned the well that begets America’s best air defenses. Airplanes come and go, but the special relationship of Washington and Lockheed (and also Northrop) is just that: special. The specialness gives this country an edge; you might say, a leading edge. It’s not something to be trifled with by ne’er-do-well johnny-come-lately politicians-who-work-for-politicians.
As to your question regarding the Cuban crisis, I was trying to remind you that the U.S. would have been blind there but for Lockheed’s U-2 program and its then-secret successor. As close as the world came to destruction at that time, our nation would have flown blindly into annihilation had it not been for some extraordinarily hot planes built on a handshake, and trust. (And by the way, the “missile gap” was a fiction confected rather expensively by Ambassador Kennedy when he had a spare son to get elected.)
Finally, I cannot re-emphasize enough the crucial importance of U.S. air superiority in securing my own sleep.
Sleep tight.
Omigod JTM,
You’re not my “cyberenemy” at all. Stop that, please. I remember you well. And I listen.
Please understand that sometimes I blog as pure assertion of self–as opinion–and sometimes I revert to the reporter or else the policy wonk that I once was, so that sometimes I’m opinining and at other times I’m just reporting. (Admitting my biases as I go along, as also I’m trained as an anthro.)
In view of your familiarity with the subject, I should think that you’d value my report of the mood toward the Administration here in Marietta, Georgia, where the F-22 is based. The effective killing of the F-22 project, a move that the Hill obviously recognizes already as a mistake, has poisoned the well that begets America’s best air defenses. Airplanes come and go, but the special relationship of Washington and Lockheed (and also Northrop) is just that: special. The specialness gives this country an edge; you might say, a leading edge. It’s not something to be trifled with by ne’er-do-well johnny-come-lately politicians-who-work-for-politicians.
As to your question regarding the Cuban crisis, I was trying to remind you that the U.S. would have been blind there but for Lockheed’s U-2 program and its then-secret successor. As close as the world came to destruction at that time, our nation would have flown blindly into annihilation had it not been for some extraordinarily hot planes built on a handshake, and trust. (And by the way, the “missile gap” was a fiction confected rather expensively by Ambassador Kennedy when he had a spare son to get elected.)
Finally, I cannot re-emphasize enough the crucial importance of U.S. air superiority in securing my own sleep.
Sleep tight.
Omigod JTM,
You’re not my “cyberenemy” at all. Stop that, please. I remember you well. And I listen.
Please understand that sometimes I blog as pure assertion of self–as opinion–and sometimes I revert to the reporter or else the policy wonk that I once was, so that sometimes I’m opinining and at other times I’m just reporting. (Admitting my biases as I go along, as also I’m trained as an anthro.)
In view of your familiarity with the subject, I should think that you’d value my report of the mood toward the Administration here in Marietta, Georgia, where the F-22 is based. The effective killing of the F-22 project, a move that the Hill obviously recognizes already as a mistake, has poisoned the well that begets America’s best air defenses. Airplanes come and go, but the special relationship of Washington and Lockheed (and also Northrop) is just that: special. The specialness gives this country an edge; you might say, a leading edge. It’s not something to be trifled with by ne’er-do-well johnny-come-lately politicians-who-work-for-politicians.
As to your question regarding the Cuban crisis, I was trying to remind you that the U.S. would have been blind there but for Lockheed’s U-2 program and its then-secret successor. As close as the world came to destruction at that time, our nation would have flown blindly into annihilation had it not been for some extraordinarily hot planes built on a handshake, and trust. (And by the way, the “missile gap” was a fiction confected rather expensively by Ambassador Kennedy when he had a spare son to get elected.)
Finally, I cannot re-emphasize enough the crucial importance of U.S. air superiority in securing my own sleep.
Sleep tight.
JTM,
I would just remind you that the basic Soviet cause of the Cuban Missile Crisis was that, contrary to American belief owing to old Joe’s disinformation campaign, the Russians had at that time only a handful of ICBMs, whereas the USA had about 100 of them (notwithstanding our fixed and naval superiority proximate to the USSR); hence the felt Soviet need to emplace short- and intermediate-range missiles in Cuba.
The hunt for stability–nuclear equilibrium–very nearly killed the planet. It does so still, in my view. The answer is overwhelming superiority, over against “stability”: We can be trusted; they can’t.
Call me a dinosaur.
JTM,
I would just remind you that the basic Soviet cause of the Cuban Missile Crisis was that, contrary to American belief owing to old Joe’s disinformation campaign, the Russians had at that time only a handful of ICBMs, whereas the USA had about 100 of them (notwithstanding our fixed and naval superiority proximate to the USSR); hence the felt Soviet need to emplace short- and intermediate-range missiles in Cuba.
The hunt for stability–nuclear equilibrium–very nearly killed the planet. It does so still, in my view. The answer is overwhelming superiority, over against “stability”: We can be trusted; they can’t.
Call me a dinosaur.
WARNING: VIOLATION OF BRIEF-UN-NUANCED EXCHANGE BLOG PROTOCOL AHEAD.
Hugo, I just finished a professional face-to-face conversation with a Russian emigre, a pharmacy trainee. Nice guy, just as human as you or I. I got a laugh from him by remarking how we got along so well, while certain of our “countrymen” are still busily scurrying in the Pentagon and Congress and the HQs of various MIC profit nodes and “the Kremlin,” planning on how to overcome and destroy The Enemy. While Chinese guys and North Korean loonie toons and who knows, some would-be hegemonist in Belize or Botswana, plots his or her own schemes to “take over the world.” And because of people like that, the guys behind the plow and doing the weaving and metalsmithing and teaching and doctoring have to shell out big parts of the wealth they create to let those other folks play their oh-so-deadly-serious but oh-so-patently-futile games.
I and a lot of other Americans are indeed the Enemy of that class. Which itself is subdivided into warring tribes, snarling and growling over who gets the biggest gobbets of flesh from the bleeding carcass. What a nice expression: “The Joint Chiefs.” Where that euphemism “interservice rivalry” covers the deadliest kinds of knife fights over “resources.” How much of the energy centered in “the Pentagon” goes into that game, which is as deadly serious as any “air superiority dogfight?”
And “dogfight:” another great meme. Michael Vick just got released to home detention for his dog-fighting side job, yet some cultures just get off on dog- and cock-fighting And that includes the military culture. Now your great techonology has come to the point that your great “air superiority” aircraft are little but grotesquely expensive missile carriers and launchers.
“The weapons bay played a huge role in the design evolution of the F-22. The aircraft is essentially wrapped around its internal bay, which is an essential characteristic of the F-22′s stealthy design. The limited space drove the configuration of the launchers and acoustic suppression devices. Launching weapons from an internal bay is not a new problem. The F-111 and F-117 have internal bays as well as older aircraft like the F-102, F-105, and F-106. Historically, bay acoustics and weapon re-contact with structure during separation have been issues. The F-22 has a requirement to launch weapons throughout the service envelope at roll rates up to 100 degrees per second. This is a groundbreaking requirement made even tougher by tight clearances and flow fields that result from internal carriage.” http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/systems/aircraft/f-22-weapons.htm
The “dogfight” was pretty much a lot of high-G maneuvering, testing the limits of the protoplasmic computer up front to not die from blood vessel ruptures or gray-blackout “losing” positioning. All to shoot bullets or now missiles up the ass of some other aircraft driven by another guy trying to do the same. In the name of personal and tribal glory.
Yah, that’s combat, and it has ever been thus, and will likely always be short of the harmonic convergence or the heat death of the universe. And that’s my point: people who work on that side of the fence have won the REAL battle, which is to help themselves to MORE resources to chase the soaring tail of the upwardly-asymptotic curve that represents World Military Spending.
The F-22 “decision?” A mistake “the Hill” recognizes? Why, because certain power relationships and campaign funding sources might dry up? Lockheed-Martin has a “special relationship?” What the hell is that? Do a search on “lockheed martin fraud procurement criminal cost overrun” and what do you get? Now, isn’t THAT special? And as you have pointed out, crocodile tears and all, the F-35 is, excuse the expression, in the wings, with its own flocks of partisans and people “earning good upper middle class incomes” by taking part in all the thousands of operations and assemblages that hang still more of these turkeys around the necks of the dumb oxen that plow the furrows that produce the food that this dead-end superstructure feeds off of.
And please, “we” are going to “stabilize” the world by maintaining a huge “superiority” in the number of nukular warheads “we” can dump on whatever “enemy” targets are presented? Yah, that’s how things are, but what ya gonna do about the little cancer cells of humans who proliferate these WMDs or steal one and stick it in a container or use some other very low-tech and CHEAP “delivery system” to “take out” some major city? Leading to “massive retaliation” against who, exactly? And how does the MIC and our military-political “policies” of arms and technology gifts and sales (and of course the chance to walk away with billions of dollars in taxpayer cash) to anyone with a buck or who somehow short-term becomes a darling of the policy wonks? It’s the difference between the world according to “The Kite Runner” and “Charlie Wilson’s War.”
(pause for a few, no, a lot of deep breaths)
But what I need to do is figure out which companies are gonna be the winners in the next procurement rounds, and buy stock. Invest in the future, as it were. Just look at the latest budget, which doesn’t even count the current war-fighting and out-year expenses, or provide for the inevitable “change orders” and other cost overruns. As you know, your tribe, being better armed in so many senses of the term, has won and will likely keep on beating “The Enemy” into the future. Like “we” did in Vietnam and are doing so well in the Mideast. The Borg are among us, and resistance is indeed futile.
WARNING: VIOLATION OF BRIEF-UN-NUANCED EXCHANGE BLOG PROTOCOL AHEAD.
Hugo, I just finished a professional face-to-face conversation with a Russian emigre, a pharmacy trainee. Nice guy, just as human as you or I. I got a laugh from him by remarking how we got along so well, while certain of our “countrymen” are still busily scurrying in the Pentagon and Congress and the HQs of various MIC profit nodes and “the Kremlin,” planning on how to overcome and destroy The Enemy. While Chinese guys and North Korean loonie toons and who knows, some would-be hegemonist in Belize or Botswana, plots his or her own schemes to “take over the world.” And because of people like that, the guys behind the plow and doing the weaving and metalsmithing and teaching and doctoring have to shell out big parts of the wealth they create to let those other folks play their oh-so-deadly-serious but oh-so-patently-futile games.
I and a lot of other Americans are indeed the Enemy of that class. Which itself is subdivided into warring tribes, snarling and growling over who gets the biggest gobbets of flesh from the bleeding carcass. What a nice expression: “The Joint Chiefs.” Where that euphemism “interservice rivalry” covers the deadliest kinds of knife fights over “resources.” How much of the energy centered in “the Pentagon” goes into that game, which is as deadly serious as any “air superiority dogfight?”
And “dogfight:” another great meme. Michael Vick just got released to home detention for his dog-fighting side job, yet some cultures just get off on dog- and cock-fighting And that includes the military culture. Now your great techonology has come to the point that your great “air superiority” aircraft are little but grotesquely expensive missile carriers and launchers.
“The weapons bay played a huge role in the design evolution of the F-22. The aircraft is essentially wrapped around its internal bay, which is an essential characteristic of the F-22′s stealthy design. The limited space drove the configuration of the launchers and acoustic suppression devices. Launching weapons from an internal bay is not a new problem. The F-111 and F-117 have internal bays as well as older aircraft like the F-102, F-105, and F-106. Historically, bay acoustics and weapon re-contact with structure during separation have been issues. The F-22 has a requirement to launch weapons throughout the service envelope at roll rates up to 100 degrees per second. This is a groundbreaking requirement made even tougher by tight clearances and flow fields that result from internal carriage.” http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/systems/aircraft/f-22-weapons.htm
The “dogfight” was pretty much a lot of high-G maneuvering, testing the limits of the protoplasmic computer up front to not die from blood vessel ruptures or gray-blackout “losing” positioning. All to shoot bullets or now missiles up the ass of some other aircraft driven by another guy trying to do the same. In the name of personal and tribal glory.
Yah, that’s combat, and it has ever been thus, and will likely always be short of the harmonic convergence or the heat death of the universe. And that’s my point: people who work on that side of the fence have won the REAL battle, which is to help themselves to MORE resources to chase the soaring tail of the upwardly-asymptotic curve that represents World Military Spending.
The F-22 “decision?” A mistake “the Hill” recognizes? Why, because certain power relationships and campaign funding sources might dry up? Lockheed-Martin has a “special relationship?” What the hell is that? Do a search on “lockheed martin fraud procurement criminal cost overrun” and what do you get? Now, isn’t THAT special? And as you have pointed out, crocodile tears and all, the F-35 is, excuse the expression, in the wings, with its own flocks of partisans and people “earning good upper middle class incomes” by taking part in all the thousands of operations and assemblages that hang still more of these turkeys around the necks of the dumb oxen that plow the furrows that produce the food that this dead-end superstructure feeds off of.
And please, “we” are going to “stabilize” the world by maintaining a huge “superiority” in the number of nukular warheads “we” can dump on whatever “enemy” targets are presented? Yah, that’s how things are, but what ya gonna do about the little cancer cells of humans who proliferate these WMDs or steal one and stick it in a container or use some other very low-tech and CHEAP “delivery system” to “take out” some major city? Leading to “massive retaliation” against who, exactly? And how does the MIC and our military-political “policies” of arms and technology gifts and sales (and of course the chance to walk away with billions of dollars in taxpayer cash) to anyone with a buck or who somehow short-term becomes a darling of the policy wonks? It’s the difference between the world according to “The Kite Runner” and “Charlie Wilson’s War.”
(pause for a few, no, a lot of deep breaths)
But what I need to do is figure out which companies are gonna be the winners in the next procurement rounds, and buy stock. Invest in the future, as it were. Just look at the latest budget, which doesn’t even count the current war-fighting and out-year expenses, or provide for the inevitable “change orders” and other cost overruns. As you know, your tribe, being better armed in so many senses of the term, has won and will likely keep on beating “The Enemy” into the future. Like “we” did in Vietnam and are doing so well in the Mideast. The Borg are among us, and resistance is indeed futile.
WARNING: VIOLATION OF BRIEF-UN-NUANCED EXCHANGE BLOG PROTOCOL AHEAD.
Hugo, I just finished a professional face-to-face conversation with a Russian emigre, a pharmacy trainee. Nice guy, just as human as you or I. I got a laugh from him by remarking how we got along so well, while certain of our “countrymen” are still busily scurrying in the Pentagon and Congress and the HQs of various MIC profit nodes and “the Kremlin,” planning on how to overcome and destroy The Enemy. While Chinese guys and North Korean loonie toons and who knows, some would-be hegemonist in Belize or Botswana, plots his or her own schemes to “take over the world.” And because of people like that, the guys behind the plow and doing the weaving and metalsmithing and teaching and doctoring have to shell out big parts of the wealth they create to let those other folks play their oh-so-deadly-serious but oh-so-patently-futile games.
I and a lot of other Americans are indeed the Enemy of that class. Which itself is subdivided into warring tribes, snarling and growling over who gets the biggest gobbets of flesh from the bleeding carcass. What a nice expression: “The Joint Chiefs.” Where that euphemism “interservice rivalry” covers the deadliest kinds of knife fights over “resources.” How much of the energy centered in “the Pentagon” goes into that game, which is as deadly serious as any “air superiority dogfight?”
And “dogfight:” another great meme. Michael Vick just got released to home detention for his dog-fighting side job, yet some cultures just get off on dog- and cock-fighting And that includes the military culture. Now your great techonology has come to the point that your great “air superiority” aircraft are little but grotesquely expensive missile carriers and launchers.
“The weapons bay played a huge role in the design evolution of the F-22. The aircraft is essentially wrapped around its internal bay, which is an essential characteristic of the F-22′s stealthy design. The limited space drove the configuration of the launchers and acoustic suppression devices. Launching weapons from an internal bay is not a new problem. The F-111 and F-117 have internal bays as well as older aircraft like the F-102, F-105, and F-106. Historically, bay acoustics and weapon re-contact with structure during separation have been issues. The F-22 has a requirement to launch weapons throughout the service envelope at roll rates up to 100 degrees per second. This is a groundbreaking requirement made even tougher by tight clearances and flow fields that result from internal carriage.” http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/systems/aircraft/f-22-weapons.htm
The “dogfight” was pretty much a lot of high-G maneuvering, testing the limits of the protoplasmic computer up front to not die from blood vessel ruptures or gray-blackout “losing” positioning. All to shoot bullets or now missiles up the ass of some other aircraft driven by another guy trying to do the same. In the name of personal and tribal glory.
Yah, that’s combat, and it has ever been thus, and will likely always be short of the harmonic convergence or the heat death of the universe. And that’s my point: people who work on that side of the fence have won the REAL battle, which is to help themselves to MORE resources to chase the soaring tail of the upwardly-asymptotic curve that represents World Military Spending.
The F-22 “decision?” A mistake “the Hill” recognizes? Why, because certain power relationships and campaign funding sources might dry up? Lockheed-Martin has a “special relationship?” What the hell is that? Do a search on “lockheed martin fraud procurement criminal cost overrun” and what do you get? Now, isn’t THAT special? And as you have pointed out, crocodile tears and all, the F-35 is, excuse the expression, in the wings, with its own flocks of partisans and people “earning good upper middle class incomes” by taking part in all the thousands of operations and assemblages that hang still more of these turkeys around the necks of the dumb oxen that plow the furrows that produce the food that this dead-end superstructure feeds off of.
And please, “we” are going to “stabilize” the world by maintaining a huge “superiority” in the number of nukular warheads “we” can dump on whatever “enemy” targets are presented? Yah, that’s how things are, but what ya gonna do about the little cancer cells of humans who proliferate these WMDs or steal one and stick it in a container or use some other very low-tech and CHEAP “delivery system” to “take out” some major city? Leading to “massive retaliation” against who, exactly? And how does the MIC and our military-political “policies” of arms and technology gifts and sales (and of course the chance to walk away with billions of dollars in taxpayer cash) to anyone with a buck or who somehow short-term becomes a darling of the policy wonks? It’s the difference between the world according to “The Kite Runner” and “Charlie Wilson’s War.”
(pause for a few, no, a lot of deep breaths)
But what I need to do is figure out which companies are gonna be the winners in the next procurement rounds, and buy stock. Invest in the future, as it were. Just look at the latest budget, which doesn’t even count the current war-fighting and out-year expenses, or provide for the inevitable “change orders” and other cost overruns. As you know, your tribe, being better armed in so many senses of the term, has won and will likely keep on beating “The Enemy” into the future. Like “we” did in Vietnam and are doing so well in the Mideast. The Borg are among us, and resistance is indeed futile.
And Hugo, the “missile gap” had less to do with Stalin’s “disinformation” than with the “misinformation” peddled by our own “security forces.” As I recall it, they and the Rand Institute’s modelers counted the number of test launches of Soviet missiles, assumed that they tested the same number our “programs” did, and then did some simple math to come up with a patently dishonest figure for how many missiles the Russkies had. Like with assuming that Soviet “Badger” bomber production could be estimated from the square footage of factory space used to build them, assuming they used the same production strategies as Boeing. And counting the “Badgers” flying in formation round and ’round Moscow during a Mayday event, and assuming it wasn’t the same four aircraft on each pass.
And do I disremember, or was the placement of Soviet IRBMs in Cuber not in response to OUR hegemonists’ placement of a LOT of IRBMs in Turkey and other areas with depressed-trajectory times to targets (all major Soviet cities, air bases and missile complexes) on the order of 5 minutes? And THAT was how “we” achieve stability via “overwhelming superiority?”
We are and have been just dumb-lucky as a species not to have puked and died decades ago.
And Hugo, the “missile gap” had less to do with Stalin’s “disinformation” than with the “misinformation” peddled by our own “security forces.” As I recall it, they and the Rand Institute’s modelers counted the number of test launches of Soviet missiles, assumed that they tested the same number our “programs” did, and then did some simple math to come up with a patently dishonest figure for how many missiles the Russkies had. Like with assuming that Soviet “Badger” bomber production could be estimated from the square footage of factory space used to build them, assuming they used the same production strategies as Boeing. And counting the “Badgers” flying in formation round and ’round Moscow during a Mayday event, and assuming it wasn’t the same four aircraft on each pass.
And do I disremember, or was the placement of Soviet IRBMs in Cuber not in response to OUR hegemonists’ placement of a LOT of IRBMs in Turkey and other areas with depressed-trajectory times to targets (all major Soviet cities, air bases and missile complexes) on the order of 5 minutes? And THAT was how “we” achieve stability via “overwhelming superiority?”
We are and have been just dumb-lucky as a species not to have puked and died decades ago.
All good stuff, JTM, and fair enough.
Incidentally, I’ve never advocated stability, especially not via MADD. You’re right, stability and superiority don’t equate.
And I agree that we’re lucky not to have been carbonized on, by my count, five occasions between 1962 and 2008.
All good stuff, JTM, and fair enough.
Incidentally, I’ve never advocated stability, especially not via MADD. You’re right, stability and superiority don’t equate.
And I agree that we’re lucky not to have been carbonized on, by my count, five occasions between 1962 and 2008.
Make that MAD, as I’ve no brief for drunk drivers.
It’s a bitter pill, but it always seemed to me preferable to negotiate stockpile reduction from the position of superior force-strength and superior technological capability. Generally, Republican DoD’s emphasize the quantitative former, while Democratic ones emphasize the qualitative latter. But both were key in getting the USSR to throw in the towel, and I think that the lessons have been learned by responsible persons in both American parties. (I do wonder, however, how President Obama sees us getting by on the strength of a 250-ship Navy.)
The IRBMs JFK agreed to remove from Turkey already had been superseded by more capable ones, just as Ike’s promise to stop overflying the USSR with U-2s was a bit of a ruse, as we’d already deployed Blackbirds for that purpose. Speak softly and carry a big light sabre?
Fraud and waste in the military industry is, to me, a form of treason. We could use another Harry Truman to give the frauds hell again.
Make that MAD, as I’ve no brief for drunk drivers.
It’s a bitter pill, but it always seemed to me preferable to negotiate stockpile reduction from the position of superior force-strength and superior technological capability. Generally, Republican DoD’s emphasize the quantitative former, while Democratic ones emphasize the qualitative latter. But both were key in getting the USSR to throw in the towel, and I think that the lessons have been learned by responsible persons in both American parties. (I do wonder, however, how President Obama sees us getting by on the strength of a 250-ship Navy.)
The IRBMs JFK agreed to remove from Turkey already had been superseded by more capable ones, just as Ike’s promise to stop overflying the USSR with U-2s was a bit of a ruse, as we’d already deployed Blackbirds for that purpose. Speak softly and carry a big light sabre?
Fraud and waste in the military industry is, to me, a form of treason. We could use another Harry Truman to give the frauds hell again.