A Leading Indicator
April 7th, 2009 by Jon Taplin
Baltic Dry Index
Here is the clearest sign yet that world trade is beginning to revive. The Baltic Dry Index is the way the world counts gross tonnage of Dry Bulk Sea shipping. After a precipitous fall, it has started to move back up.
Don’t get too excited:
“The Baltic Dry Index fell for a 20th straight day by 1.3% and has now retraced a bit more than 50% of its bounce from the depths of early December but remains 121% above that low”
That low was a BIG overshoot – but were not being “lead” back out of this.
Don’t get too excited:
“The Baltic Dry Index fell for a 20th straight day by 1.3% and has now retraced a bit more than 50% of its bounce from the depths of early December but remains 121% above that low”
That low was a BIG overshoot – but were not being “lead” back out of this.
Out here in the hinterlands, it feels [emphasis on FEELS] like we are approaching the bottom. We probably aren’t there yet is the consensus, but it is starting to change.
A group of fellow contractors and I were discussing the economy at a local function the other night and that was pretty much the consensus of about a dozen guys.
As Winnie once said, “this is not the end or even the beginning of the end, but it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.”
My concern is that the financial weenies – the real decision makers, have hardly been hurt at all. There needs to be a whole lot more of them “flying coach”, selling the yachts, and so forth. in short, they need to fail, without that, we will go back to the way it was – there won’t be any significant change. – And we need it badly!
Out here in the hinterlands, it feels [emphasis on FEELS] like we are approaching the bottom. We probably aren’t there yet is the consensus, but it is starting to change.
A group of fellow contractors and I were discussing the economy at a local function the other night and that was pretty much the consensus of about a dozen guys.
As Winnie once said, “this is not the end or even the beginning of the end, but it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.”
My concern is that the financial weenies – the real decision makers, have hardly been hurt at all. There needs to be a whole lot more of them “flying coach”, selling the yachts, and so forth. in short, they need to fail, without that, we will go back to the way it was – there won’t be any significant change. – And we need it badly!
How anyone can think that this is the beginning of the end is beyond me. Beginning of the middle? End of the start?
Consumer credit just contracted at its fastest rate in 10 years and credit lines are being cut. Banks are sitting on a bunch of foreclosures. The commercial real estate bust is getting going.
And, as pointed out, hell has not yet been paid by those who deserve to pay it.
As someone else mentioned on another site, don’t confuse and inflection point with a bottom.
How anyone can think that this is the beginning of the end is beyond me. Beginning of the middle? End of the start?
Consumer credit just contracted at its fastest rate in 10 years and credit lines are being cut. Banks are sitting on a bunch of foreclosures. The commercial real estate bust is getting going.
And, as pointed out, hell has not yet been paid by those who deserve to pay it.
As someone else mentioned on another site, don’t confuse and inflection point with a bottom.
Anybody think parasites and predators are likely to do anything different the next boom-and-bust cycle? Let’s see a show of hands… anyone?…
And categories: there are people with a lot of money who got that by creating some Real Wealth, stuff that makes it possible for other people to eat and stay out of the rain and not freeze and stuff. Some of them even display a little of that ol’ Noblesse Oblige.
And then there are people who have the appearance of being very Rich as Croesus, whose “money” consists of calculated bumps on other bumps of stuff that the rest of us are foolish enough to take in trade for the Ferarri F430 “Greenmobile”. And the Sabreliner. And the 308-foot megayacht with the JetRanger on the back deck and the other toys. And the private island in the South China Sea.
Any stock charting gurus out there who could venture an opinion on the probative value of the above chart?
I do pray that there will be a recovery, and not just one of those things you see in the hospital, where the deathly ill person has a sudden brief interlude of pain-free clarity before Something Else happens.
Anybody think parasites and predators are likely to do anything different the next boom-and-bust cycle? Let’s see a show of hands… anyone?…
And categories: there are people with a lot of money who got that by creating some Real Wealth, stuff that makes it possible for other people to eat and stay out of the rain and not freeze and stuff. Some of them even display a little of that ol’ Noblesse Oblige.
And then there are people who have the appearance of being very Rich as Croesus, whose “money” consists of calculated bumps on other bumps of stuff that the rest of us are foolish enough to take in trade for the Ferarri F430 “Greenmobile”. And the Sabreliner. And the 308-foot megayacht with the JetRanger on the back deck and the other toys. And the private island in the South China Sea.
Any stock charting gurus out there who could venture an opinion on the probative value of the above chart?
I do pray that there will be a recovery, and not just one of those things you see in the hospital, where the deathly ill person has a sudden brief interlude of pain-free clarity before Something Else happens.
So the sky is falling?
So the sky is falling?
I had totally forgotten about the Baltic Dry Index. As a child I followed the shipping news (Uncle John was a merchant seaman) in the Boston Globe. This feels like the mid 70s here in Plymouth, MA. Even the last gasp fall-back jobs are scarce. It’s a “roll your own” time and I’m not talking about weed or tobacco, I’m talking about jobs. I’ve been here before. I think the colloquial term is to pull yourself up by your bootstraps.
Some people can do that, some can’t. The Baltic Dry Index is one thing, the open Northwest Passage is another.
I had totally forgotten about the Baltic Dry Index. As a child I followed the shipping news (Uncle John was a merchant seaman) in the Boston Globe. This feels like the mid 70s here in Plymouth, MA. Even the last gasp fall-back jobs are scarce. It’s a “roll your own” time and I’m not talking about weed or tobacco, I’m talking about jobs. I’ve been here before. I think the colloquial term is to pull yourself up by your bootstraps.
Some people can do that, some can’t. The Baltic Dry Index is one thing, the open Northwest Passage is another.
Actually the BDI represents the cost and not the volume of shipping. Cost is related to volume – supply and demand and all that – but shipping costs are also subject other factors such as fuel costs.
And pirates.
Actually the BDI represents the cost and not the volume of shipping. Cost is related to volume – supply and demand and all that – but shipping costs are also subject other factors such as fuel costs.
And pirates.
Actually the BDI represents the cost and not the volume of shipping. Cost is related to volume – supply and demand and all that – but shipping costs are also subject other factors such as fuel costs.
And pirates.
@Jim Flynn — Hey neighbor! I live in the 02360 too, right downtown in the Watson Hill neighborhood.
@All: Sorry for the OT post. =)
@Jim Flynn — Hey neighbor! I live in the 02360 too, right downtown in the Watson Hill neighborhood.
@All: Sorry for the OT post. =)
@Jim Flynn — Hey neighbor! I live in the 02360 too, right downtown in the Watson Hill neighborhood.
@All: Sorry for the OT post. =)
@Jim Flynn — Hey neighbor! I live in the 02360 too, right downtown in the Watson Hill neighborhood.
@All: Sorry for the OT post. =)