Republican phony arguments
John Boehner and his caucus are floating some really fallacious arguments against Obama’s stimulus plan. Paul Krugman explains.
First, there’s the bogus talking point that the Obama plan will cost $275,000 per job created. Why is it bogus? Because it involves taking the cost of a plan that will extend over several years, creating millions of jobs each year, and dividing it by the jobs created in just one of those years.
It’s as if an opponent of the school lunch program were to take an estimate of the cost of that program over the next five years, then divide it by the number of lunches provided in just one of those years, and assert that the program was hugely wasteful, because it cost $13 per lunch. (The actual cost of a free school lunch, by the way, is $2.57.)
Read the whole column. You are going to hear a lot of nonsense from the right in the next few weeks about how this plan is too big. They are wrong. In fact the problems their policies created are much bigger than anyone is willing to admit because it’s too scary. The one that has worried me the most is the Credit Default Swaps issue. Over the weekend Gretchen Morgenson pointed us to one possible solution from Sylvain Raines of Baruch College.
Mr. Raynes’s resolution is more radical: unwinding all outstanding credit-default swaps through a process he calls inversion.
Under this plan, insurance premiums would be refunded to buyers of credit protection from the entity that wrote the initial contract. And the seller would no longer be under any obligation to pay if a default occurred.
The premium repayments would be made over the same period and at the same rate that they were paid out. If a contract was struck three years ago and charged quarterly premiums, the premiums would then be refunded quarterly over the next three years.
I like this idea because it unwinds a completely dangerous business that is used by speculators to launch their bear raids on banks using little or no collateral. Estimates are that half of the $30 trillion in CDS contracts would cancel each other out (offsetting bets). That still leaves $15 Trillion that no one has. Raynes idea of simply cancelling the contracts and returning the premiums is the only way out.
CitiBank’s purchase of a new French executive jet is some sort of financial stimulus, isn’t it?
If there was ever a time for “monkey wrenching” this may be it.
CitiBank’s purchase of a new French executive jet is some sort of financial stimulus, isn’t it?
If there was ever a time for “monkey wrenching” this may be it.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/01/26/citi-jet-purchase-50-mill_n_160807.html
How much a passenger mile will that come to over the lifetime of the jet?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/01/26/citi-jet-purchase-50-mill_n_160807.html
How much a passenger mile will that come to over the lifetime of the jet?
Appropriateness of the timing aside, I absolutely love this plane – mainly because of what it represents in terms of design practice, and my general love of visualization.
Here’s what the Economist had to say when the model made its debut at the 2005 Paris airshow.
Dassault, by the way, was acting as their own client here, since they’re also leading developers of engineering pre-viz systems. The legacy of Descartes is going strong.
None of this diminishes the utter stupidity of the jerks from Citi. Clearly, they’ve learned nothing from the past few months. And that’s not an encouraging sign when they are the exact same people the Paulson plan would put in charge of recovery.
Appropriateness of the timing aside, I absolutely love this plane – mainly because of what it represents in terms of design practice, and my general love of visualization.
Here’s what the Economist had to say when the model made its debut at the 2005 Paris airshow.
Dassault, by the way, was acting as their own client here, since they’re also leading developers of engineering pre-viz systems. The legacy of Descartes is going strong.
None of this diminishes the utter stupidity of the jerks from Citi. Clearly, they’ve learned nothing from the past few months. And that’s not an encouraging sign when they are the exact same people the Paulson plan would put in charge of recovery.
I forgot to mention that Dassault never created any prototypes for the 7X. The first one they made got sold. And because every one made since then was identical (in terms of mechanics), the costs of ownership are the lowest in the industry (planes not so well designed end up with a host of ‘variations’ that lead to custom maintenance and service requirements for each plane, and exponentially higher costs as a result).
All that said, the Citi guys remain idiots for thinking this is a case that could even be made in this climate – even if it does have some merit.
I forgot to mention that Dassault never created any prototypes for the 7X. The first one they made got sold. And because every one made since then was identical (in terms of mechanics), the costs of ownership are the lowest in the industry (planes not so well designed end up with a host of ‘variations’ that lead to custom maintenance and service requirements for each plane, and exponentially higher costs as a result).
All that said, the Citi guys remain idiots for thinking this is a case that could even be made in this climate – even if it does have some merit.
Completely without merit, on the other hand, are the Rushupblicans.
Mindless ‘leadership’ is what got these guys dispatched to the wilderness in the first place, and mindless opposition is what’s going to keep them there for good.
Completely without merit, on the other hand, are the Rushupblicans.
Mindless ‘leadership’ is what got these guys dispatched to the wilderness in the first place, and mindless opposition is what’s going to keep them there for good.
Rush’s cheerleading for an Obama failure shows that he’s just an asshole who does not care about his country, the people, or anything other than his own ego.
Rush’s cheerleading for an Obama failure shows that he’s just an asshole who does not care about his country, the people, or anything other than his own ego.
Or that he’s simply lost his mind completely (drugs will do that to you, Rush).
Seriously, given that we’ve just seen the consequences of Presidential failure, what does he think that more failure would mean? Or has he simply stopped thinking entirely?
I think it was Newt Gingrich who said that if the Republicans ever want to be considered the Party of Ideas again, then they’ll need to support Obama when he had good ideas, and propose better ones when they see the opportunity. Reflexive obstructionism is a recipe for oblivion.
And when you have Gingrich as your most sensible member, well, then you know you’re screwed.
In other words, cooler heads are in no danger of prevailing. I’m not even sure Rush knows who won the election. He’s probably calling Fox TV, and demanding to know why they keep referring to Obama as ‘The President.’
Or that he’s simply lost his mind completely (drugs will do that to you, Rush).
Seriously, given that we’ve just seen the consequences of Presidential failure, what does he think that more failure would mean? Or has he simply stopped thinking entirely?
I think it was Newt Gingrich who said that if the Republicans ever want to be considered the Party of Ideas again, then they’ll need to support Obama when he had good ideas, and propose better ones when they see the opportunity. Reflexive obstructionism is a recipe for oblivion.
And when you have Gingrich as your most sensible member, well, then you know you’re screwed.
In other words, cooler heads are in no danger of prevailing. I’m not even sure Rush knows who won the election. He’s probably calling Fox TV, and demanding to know why they keep referring to Obama as ‘The President.’
Oh, and speaking of funny, Page Six has a very pithy take on the Cititwits.
Ha.
Oh, and speaking of funny, Page Six has a very pithy take on the Cititwits.
Ha.
Also, Robert Reich just tore a strip off the usual suspects for rank dishonesty, in An Open Letter to Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity, and Michelle Malkin.
And then he really starts to swing. It’s a sad state of affairs, but a very lively read.
Also, Robert Reich just tore a strip off the usual suspects for rank dishonesty, in An Open Letter to Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity, and Michelle Malkin.
And then he really starts to swing. It’s a sad state of affairs, but a very lively read.
I love Bob Herbert!
In his column in today’s NY Times, Bob Herbert took on the Republicans and their actions to impede Obama’s Stimulus Package. Here is a small section which I think sums it up pretty well:
I’m not sure rehab would be enough.
For the past twenty-five years, since Reagan made it HIS solution for all our problems, the Republicans have made tax cuts the solution for recessions, soaring income, war in the Middle East, real estate bubbles, technology busts… you name it, tax cuts solve it.
Now, as we crawl on the bottom of the sea of disaster, Boehner and buddies are calling for TAX CUTS to get us out of the problem… not spending money on infrastructure, not job creation, not foreign policy adjustment… TAX CUTS!
I don’t believe it! McCain, who lost an election because Americans really didn’t think he could handle the economy, wants TAX CUTS! A Republican minority in Congress which could be outvoted by Democrats is standing in the way of Obama’s solution by howling for TAX CUTS!
If I get a tax cut it will put another 25 bucks into my pocket… and the Republicans think my spending this will solve the problem. I’m already borrowing twice that amount each month from what’s left of my retirement savings just to pay for the increased expenses of this economy. Tax cuts are a solution whose failure has been proven by the situation we are in now… it is the solution that proves failure.
See, we gave the banks a lot of money (billions!) while Bush was still there. Herbert points out that
And Citibank is taking 50 million of its bailout money to by a corporate jet… a French corporate jet (the money won’t even stay in our economy.)
So how are the Republicans taking this situation when Obama is trying to put up a stimulus package to increase jobs, loans a and extended unemployment insurance? They are seeing it as a call for TAX CUTS!
Obama is supposed to be going to Congress this week to talk to Republicans. All I can say is DON’T GIVE IN! You’ve got the strength to get this $825 Billion stimulus through without the support of the walking dead on the conservative side of government.
USE IT!
Under The LobsterScope
I love Bob Herbert!
In his column in today’s NY Times, Bob Herbert took on the Republicans and their actions to impede Obama’s Stimulus Package. Here is a small section which I think sums it up pretty well:
I’m not sure rehab would be enough.
For the past twenty-five years, since Reagan made it HIS solution for all our problems, the Republicans have made tax cuts the solution for recessions, soaring income, war in the Middle East, real estate bubbles, technology busts… you name it, tax cuts solve it.
Now, as we crawl on the bottom of the sea of disaster, Boehner and buddies are calling for TAX CUTS to get us out of the problem… not spending money on infrastructure, not job creation, not foreign policy adjustment… TAX CUTS!
I don’t believe it! McCain, who lost an election because Americans really didn’t think he could handle the economy, wants TAX CUTS! A Republican minority in Congress which could be outvoted by Democrats is standing in the way of Obama’s solution by howling for TAX CUTS!
If I get a tax cut it will put another 25 bucks into my pocket… and the Republicans think my spending this will solve the problem. I’m already borrowing twice that amount each month from what’s left of my retirement savings just to pay for the increased expenses of this economy. Tax cuts are a solution whose failure has been proven by the situation we are in now… it is the solution that proves failure.
See, we gave the banks a lot of money (billions!) while Bush was still there. Herbert points out that
And Citibank is taking 50 million of its bailout money to by a corporate jet… a French corporate jet (the money won’t even stay in our economy.)
So how are the Republicans taking this situation when Obama is trying to put up a stimulus package to increase jobs, loans a and extended unemployment insurance? They are seeing it as a call for TAX CUTS!
Obama is supposed to be going to Congress this week to talk to Republicans. All I can say is DON’T GIVE IN! You’ve got the strength to get this $825 Billion stimulus through without the support of the walking dead on the conservative side of government.
USE IT!
Under The LobsterScope
Ahhh, the Obama team just told Citi to ax the jet… Now we’re talking… Feet to the fire; feel our pain…
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/01/27/obama-officials-tells-cit_n_161202.html
I think we may just have a real president.
Ahhh, the Obama team just told Citi to ax the jet… Now we’re talking… Feet to the fire; feel our pain…
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/01/27/obama-officials-tells-cit_n_161202.html
I think we may just have a real president.
Robert Reich is being ridiculed by conservatives because his notion of race-based hiring from stimulus funding is ridiculous.
http://michellemalkin.com/2009/01/26/a-reply-to-robert-reichs-open-letter/
Robert Reich is being ridiculed by conservatives because his notion of race-based hiring from stimulus funding is ridiculous.
http://michellemalkin.com/2009/01/26/a-reply-to-robert-reichs-open-letter/
Alex, I’m on the board of the only for-profit supercomputer centre in the world (although sadly our principal machine isn’t up there in the world rankings any more). Anyway, one of the things I love, like you, is the virtualization of the prototyping process, in which each and every component of complex new machines is tested to destruction, but in a virtual environment. Few people realize how important it is, but it saves so much time, so much money, and doubtless many lives. I’ve only seen it applied to pumps and car components so far, but it’s very impressive.
Of course, the kind of engineering that produced the Dassault requires very, very precise modelling, because if any of the assumptions in the model are off, then the virtual testing is useless.
Since you love virtualization, you’re obviously familiar with the myriad uses. But I’m amazed at how many other people aren’t aware of how thoroughly it’s changing the design of everything from light switches to rockets.
Anyway, yes, the Dassault 7X is a remarkable feat of aeronautical and computer engineering. That doesn’t mean Citibank should have one.
My husband, who has been something of a sceptic regarding Obama, said last night “he might just be the right guy for all this.” I’m not thrilled with the direction foreign policy is heading in, but so far things look very promising.
Steve, I’m not a huge fan of Reich, but that article you’ve linked to is classic Malkin, and pretty much proves Reich’s point. She seizes on his statement about “white male construction workers” as though it’s the core of his argument. It was foolish of Reich to use the term, but it doesn’t mean he favors race-based assessment. In fact I would read it to mean he favors a broad spread (“must be fully available to women and minorities”) – which isn’t an exclusive statement.
Of course, if you’ve got a straw man to punch, Michelle Malkin’s the go-to woman.
Alex, I’m on the board of the only for-profit supercomputer centre in the world (although sadly our principal machine isn’t up there in the world rankings any more). Anyway, one of the things I love, like you, is the virtualization of the prototyping process, in which each and every component of complex new machines is tested to destruction, but in a virtual environment. Few people realize how important it is, but it saves so much time, so much money, and doubtless many lives. I’ve only seen it applied to pumps and car components so far, but it’s very impressive.
Of course, the kind of engineering that produced the Dassault requires very, very precise modelling, because if any of the assumptions in the model are off, then the virtual testing is useless.
Since you love virtualization, you’re obviously familiar with the myriad uses. But I’m amazed at how many other people aren’t aware of how thoroughly it’s changing the design of everything from light switches to rockets.
Anyway, yes, the Dassault 7X is a remarkable feat of aeronautical and computer engineering. That doesn’t mean Citibank should have one.
My husband, who has been something of a sceptic regarding Obama, said last night “he might just be the right guy for all this.” I’m not thrilled with the direction foreign policy is heading in, but so far things look very promising.
Steve, I’m not a huge fan of Reich, but that article you’ve linked to is classic Malkin, and pretty much proves Reich’s point. She seizes on his statement about “white male construction workers” as though it’s the core of his argument. It was foolish of Reich to use the term, but it doesn’t mean he favors race-based assessment. In fact I would read it to mean he favors a broad spread (“must be fully available to women and minorities”) – which isn’t an exclusive statement.
Of course, if you’ve got a straw man to punch, Michelle Malkin’s the go-to woman.
The challenge isn’t the precision of the model but the precision of the meta-model, or simply, the understanding of the problem domain which may be what Rachel means. From the first Wright flyer and their crude wind tunnel, modeling made the difference in results and virtual models made those cheaper, easier to replicate and share, etc., but until the critical idea of three-axis control was realized, the models weren’t helping. The meta-models of flight controls were simply wrong or imprecise and didn’t reveal their imprecision until scaled up, in that case, to full-up physical models.
Dassault does a remarkable job although I do note that as Alex says, the craft are all the same without customization of vital components (the color of the carpet isn’t what this is about). We have a century of aerodynamics knowledge to work with so precision in the model can produce a beautiful aircraft if the product is kept away from the stylists after the calculations are done. OTOH, Ford almost went out of business doing that when GM began to introduce style customization in the 1920s. Black is back only sells dresses these days. No free lunch.
What one wishes the Dassault’s of the world would do would be to share the models so the actual meta-knowledge would proliferate but that means interchange standards and letting go of IP and this is an area where they aren’t being that perspicacious or generous AFAIK.
Punching Malkin is fine. Have at. Did Charlie Rangel’s video hit your radar? If the left even gives a hint that the bailout will finance large scale affirmative action, the defections in the midterms will be significant. Rush is stupid but there are plenty of Republicans who aren’t and can use that to beat on the administration because with 72000 jobs lost in a day affecting even highly placed people in industries, the ground swell of good will that Obama received can dry up pretty fast. At first, people are angry, then when the pain comes home, they become berserkers on the bridge and it won’t help to blame Bush any longer. Obama owns the problems now.
It will be a good idea for Reich and his compadres to be careful with the ideas in that blog until they get a better grasp of exactly where the money is going. This is a good time to follow Obama’s example and be parsimonious with the public statements. The public will give Obama a pass because they like him. They gave Bush a pass because they feared him.
Like can turn to dislike faster than fear turned to disgust, and then without fear, Obama can lose that mandate. So far so good, but he will have to maintain the same discipline over surrogates that he exercised in the campaign.
The challenge isn’t the precision of the model but the precision of the meta-model, or simply, the understanding of the problem domain which may be what Rachel means. From the first Wright flyer and their crude wind tunnel, modeling made the difference in results and virtual models made those cheaper, easier to replicate and share, etc., but until the critical idea of three-axis control was realized, the models weren’t helping. The meta-models of flight controls were simply wrong or imprecise and didn’t reveal their imprecision until scaled up, in that case, to full-up physical models.
Dassault does a remarkable job although I do note that as Alex says, the craft are all the same without customization of vital components (the color of the carpet isn’t what this is about). We have a century of aerodynamics knowledge to work with so precision in the model can produce a beautiful aircraft if the product is kept away from the stylists after the calculations are done. OTOH, Ford almost went out of business doing that when GM began to introduce style customization in the 1920s. Black is back only sells dresses these days. No free lunch.
What one wishes the Dassault’s of the world would do would be to share the models so the actual meta-knowledge would proliferate but that means interchange standards and letting go of IP and this is an area where they aren’t being that perspicacious or generous AFAIK.
Punching Malkin is fine. Have at. Did Charlie Rangel’s video hit your radar? If the left even gives a hint that the bailout will finance large scale affirmative action, the defections in the midterms will be significant. Rush is stupid but there are plenty of Republicans who aren’t and can use that to beat on the administration because with 72000 jobs lost in a day affecting even highly placed people in industries, the ground swell of good will that Obama received can dry up pretty fast. At first, people are angry, then when the pain comes home, they become berserkers on the bridge and it won’t help to blame Bush any longer. Obama owns the problems now.
It will be a good idea for Reich and his compadres to be careful with the ideas in that blog until they get a better grasp of exactly where the money is going. This is a good time to follow Obama’s example and be parsimonious with the public statements. The public will give Obama a pass because they like him. They gave Bush a pass because they feared him.
Like can turn to dislike faster than fear turned to disgust, and then without fear, Obama can lose that mandate. So far so good, but he will have to maintain the same discipline over surrogates that he exercised in the campaign.
For a good read, get into any of the bios on the Wright Brothers. They “modeled” like crazy and came up with, among other things, a prop design that still holds up as a paragon of efficiency. I’m not sure they even had a slide rule… They did a lot of the modeling work with their own fine tuned athletic bodies putting in a prodigious amount of time on tethered glider/kites, then gliders, then finally the 1903 Flyer.
I took my then 8 year old son to the Smithsonian to see the Flyer. We’d read three of the bios together, seen a kind of sappy but endearing movie on the Wrights, and my son was really into it. He got to stand 18″ from the plane that Orville himself had restored. He turned to me and said, “Dan, now I can die a happy man. I’ve seen the Wright Brothers’ airplane.”
I don’t know where he came up with that concept, but what a kid!
For a good read, get into any of the bios on the Wright Brothers. They “modeled” like crazy and came up with, among other things, a prop design that still holds up as a paragon of efficiency. I’m not sure they even had a slide rule… They did a lot of the modeling work with their own fine tuned athletic bodies putting in a prodigious amount of time on tethered glider/kites, then gliders, then finally the 1903 Flyer.
I took my then 8 year old son to the Smithsonian to see the Flyer. We’d read three of the bios together, seen a kind of sappy but endearing movie on the Wrights, and my son was really into it. He got to stand 18″ from the plane that Orville himself had restored. He turned to me and said, “Dan, now I can die a happy man. I’ve seen the Wright Brothers’ airplane.”
I don’t know where he came up with that concept, but what a kid!