The Future of The Republican Party
There is a great deal of hand-wringing going on inside the Republican Party right now. The potential of a landslide blowout by Obama and the Democrats is inevitably leading to a battle over which faction will control the Republican Party after the election. On one side are the Limbaugh shock-troops, the loud angry social conservatives that have dominated the base for 25 years. These people are completely embarrassing to the intellectual movement conservatives like David Brooks.
And so, politically, the G.O.P. is squeezed at both ends. The party is losing the working class by sins of omission — because it has not developed policies to address economic anxiety. It has lost the educated class by sins of commission — by telling members of that class to go away.
Chris Buckley, son of the founder of modern conservative thought William Buckley, just announced he was going to vote for Obama, partly because the right wing kooks scared the bejesus out of him.
My colleague, the superb and very dishy Kathleen Parker, recently wrote in National Review Online a column stating what John Cleese as Basil Fawlty would call “the bleeding obvious”: namely, that Sarah Palin is an embarrassment, and a dangerous one at that. She’s not exactly alone. New York Times columnist David Brooks, who began his career at NR, just called Governor Palin “a cancer on the Republican Party.”
As for Kathleen, she has to date received 12,000 (quite literally) foam-at-the-mouth hate-emails. One correspondent, if that’s quite the right word, suggested that Kathleen’s mother should have aborted her and tossed the fetus into a Dumpster. There’s Socratic dialogue for you. Dear Pup once said to me sighfully after a right-winger who fancied himself a WFB protégé had said something transcendently and provocatively cretinous, “You know, I’ve spent my entire life time separating the Right from the kooks.”
So here is the question. Will the “kooks” take over the defeated Republican Party, with Sarah Palin as their Joan of Arc? If so, where would the “Buckley conservatives” go?
The only reason I could even ask this question is because of the power of Right Wing Radio. When someone capable of “riling up the brownshirts”, like Rush Limbaugh makes $20 million a year, it inevitably attracts imitators like Michael Savage and Sean Hannity and all the hate fest shock jocks who ply their trade in local markets. Over the last 20 years these propagandists have managed to convince a lot of hard working Americans that all their problems can be traced to liberals and government meddling in the free market economy. Even though conservatives have had a veto over the American political process for 26 out of the last 28 years (Given that Clinton only had two years with a Democratic Congress), the kooks bought into this line of unreason. And of course now they are witnessing the great unraveling and they are both confused and angry and that is spilling out at rallies for Palin and McCain where hate and bigotry against “the other” seem out of control.
Ultimately the moves to control the Republican National Committee in January will be important to watch. If the hard right wins the battle to control the party, then the Democrats should make room in their “Big Tent” for the Buckley’s and the Brook’s, with the notion of a permanent center-left governing coalition. The Palin Republican brand will be marginalized to a permanent (though loud) minority status. But if the Washington center right establishment retakes control of the party, then Limbaugh, Savage and their kooks will inevitably split off into some sort of third party faction. The Republican Party would lose its foot soldiers and might go the way of the Whigs in the 1850′s.
@Chris Weekly Your point is deftly put, and in fact a change in the voting system that left only the final ballot between the top two or perhaps 3 (low man out, vote again). The goal is to get a better broader range of candidates than this two-party system has been producing (although the Dems looked better than usual this year). The system isn’t the only problem, though. The electorate, in failing to recognize and acknowledge the quality of candidates like Kucinich for the left, or long shots like Schwarzeneggar (if he were street legal) and give them more equal footing with those carrying heavy loads of markers from special interests and the money to push themselves to the front, via MSM ads that dumb everything and everyone down. I’m not smart enough to prescribe a workable system, but I know one that isn’t up to its billing when I see it.
@Chris Weekly Your point is deftly put, and in fact a change in the voting system that left only the final ballot between the top two or perhaps 3 (low man out, vote again). The goal is to get a better broader range of candidates than this two-party system has been producing (although the Dems looked better than usual this year). The system isn’t the only problem, though. The electorate, in failing to recognize and acknowledge the quality of candidates like Kucinich for the left, or long shots like Schwarzeneggar (if he were street legal) and give them more equal footing with those carrying heavy loads of markers from special interests and the money to push themselves to the front, via MSM ads that dumb everything and everyone down. I’m not smart enough to prescribe a workable system, but I know one that isn’t up to its billing when I see it.
For me, an outsider and a European, its not too difficult to see the future of American politics and especially the GOP. The Democratic Party is still the same old party as always – its big government, health care, peace in the world, trade wars etc. – because of a financial crisis and a very unpopular Republican president along with a very articulate colorful young guy – those old slogans will probably give them the Presidency.
The GOP I believe is more likely to change to become a grand center-right party like those of so many European countries. What the Right has done right in Europe is to embrace environment (as does McCain), they strongly support Free Markets (as Conservatives in the US), they protect their populations with more resources to Police and Military (as Bush), they engage in a fight for global Democracy etc. The GOP is already now positioning themselves in that way, but the Dems are still taking about protecting blue-collar workers, do they still live in the 19th Century?…Hasn’t America always been about creating your own destiny?
We all know that Bush is a reaction to Clinton, and that Obama is a reaction to Bush, none of them were/will be very good presidents, but in 2016 we got a modern Republican with a party thats is flexible and modern with individual liberty, low taxes, free markets and an aggressive activistic foreign policy as their brands against a Democratic Party that still screams somewhere to the left of the middle – did the Dems come up with a McCain-style environmental policy or his League of Democracies? Once the old generation of social conservatives pass on their votes to their more moderate children and since the general population growth in the South is higher than in the North, the GOP will be a very tough opponent.
For me, an outsider and a European, its not too difficult to see the future of American politics and especially the GOP. The Democratic Party is still the same old party as always – its big government, health care, peace in the world, trade wars etc. – because of a financial crisis and a very unpopular Republican president along with a very articulate colorful young guy – those old slogans will probably give them the Presidency.
The GOP I believe is more likely to change to become a grand center-right party like those of so many European countries. What the Right has done right in Europe is to embrace environment (as does McCain), they strongly support Free Markets (as Conservatives in the US), they protect their populations with more resources to Police and Military (as Bush), they engage in a fight for global Democracy etc. The GOP is already now positioning themselves in that way, but the Dems are still taking about protecting blue-collar workers, do they still live in the 19th Century?…Hasn’t America always been about creating your own destiny?
We all know that Bush is a reaction to Clinton, and that Obama is a reaction to Bush, none of them were/will be very good presidents, but in 2016 we got a modern Republican with a party thats is flexible and modern with individual liberty, low taxes, free markets and an aggressive activistic foreign policy as their brands against a Democratic Party that still screams somewhere to the left of the middle – did the Dems come up with a McCain-style environmental policy or his League of Democracies? Once the old generation of social conservatives pass on their votes to their more moderate children and since the general population growth in the South is higher than in the North, the GOP will be a very tough opponent.
For me, an outsider and a European, its not too difficult to see the future of American politics and especially the GOP. The Democratic Party is still the same old party as always – its big government, health care, peace in the world, trade wars etc. – because of a financial crisis and a very unpopular Republican president along with a very articulate colorful young guy – those old slogans will probably give them the Presidency.
The GOP I believe is more likely to change to become a grand center-right party like those of so many European countries. What the Right has done right in Europe is to embrace environment (as does McCain), they strongly support Free Markets (as Conservatives in the US), they protect their populations with more resources to Police and Military (as Bush), they engage in a fight for global Democracy etc. The GOP is already now positioning themselves in that way, but the Dems are still taking about protecting blue-collar workers, do they still live in the 19th Century?…Hasn’t America always been about creating your own destiny?
We all know that Bush is a reaction to Clinton, and that Obama is a reaction to Bush, none of them were/will be very good presidents, but in 2016 we got a modern Republican with a party thats is flexible and modern with individual liberty, low taxes, free markets and an aggressive activistic foreign policy as their brands against a Democratic Party that still screams somewhere to the left of the middle – did the Dems come up with a McCain-style environmental policy or his League of Democracies? Once the old generation of social conservatives pass on their votes to their more moderate children and since the general population growth in the South is higher than in the North, the GOP will be a very tough opponent.
Perhaps, European, the GOP will come back to the center long enough to gain grace again. What is unknown is how much of a sea change the economy will introduce, and whether the public will actually imprint on the notion that Reganomics are the cause of it.
If so, even a centrist GOP will have to stop being the POD (party of deficits) and that is going to require a major change in who is in charge. There are ton of old line fiscal and social conservatives out there, they just haven’t been able to get any traction against the right wing attack industry the party has relied on for years. If they try to distance themselves from the noise machine, the dynamics wont be anyway as smooth as you imagine.
Perhaps, European, the GOP will come back to the center long enough to gain grace again. What is unknown is how much of a sea change the economy will introduce, and whether the public will actually imprint on the notion that Reganomics are the cause of it.
If so, even a centrist GOP will have to stop being the POD (party of deficits) and that is going to require a major change in who is in charge. There are ton of old line fiscal and social conservatives out there, they just haven’t been able to get any traction against the right wing attack industry the party has relied on for years. If they try to distance themselves from the noise machine, the dynamics wont be anyway as smooth as you imagine.
European, yeah, and next year NASCAR will be running electric cars…
European, yeah, and next year NASCAR will be running electric cars…
European, yeah, and next year NASCAR will be running electric cars…
European, yeah, and next year NASCAR will be running electric cars…
It appears the division in the GOP to have neared the breaking point as this election appears to have left the party on the verge of divorce. The GOP has lost its identity and now learderless will flounder.
Historically parties reinvent themselves. The question becomes which road the party chooses. Buckley’s defection exemplifies the quandry it faces.
There are millions of “big D” Democrats who have felt long trapped. They are fiscally conservative, yet have historically been unable to digest the social agenda of the “Base.”
The last 8 years have been a disaster for any intellectually honest member of the GOP, as it has regressed into the party of fear and intollerance.
It would be a mistake for the GOP to discount Senator Obama as a lucky recipient of good luck. He has run a brilliant campaign tapping into “the heart of America.” His touch is deft and insticts are keen. It seems unlikely much will change when/if elected.
History shows that economies rebound and four years from now the country will likely be in a period of prosperity. The chances of a two term president are good.
Without a move to the center by the GOP the political map is ripe for realignment. Left with little choice it seems the party has left llittle room for intellectuals and fiscal conservatives.
There will always be at least two parties in our system. Checks and balances demand it even if absolute power didn’t corrupt the party in power.
A socially conservative party reemerge and force new alliances and at some point become relevent.
Interestingly enough, if reallignment were to occure, there addition to the Democratic party of economic conservatives could strengthen the party bringing it further to the right.
It appears the division in the GOP to have neared the breaking point as this election appears to have left the party on the verge of divorce. The GOP has lost its identity and now learderless will flounder.
Historically parties reinvent themselves. The question becomes which road the party chooses. Buckley’s defection exemplifies the quandry it faces.
There are millions of “big D” Democrats who have felt long trapped. They are fiscally conservative, yet have historically been unable to digest the social agenda of the “Base.”
The last 8 years have been a disaster for any intellectually honest member of the GOP, as it has regressed into the party of fear and intollerance.
It would be a mistake for the GOP to discount Senator Obama as a lucky recipient of good luck. He has run a brilliant campaign tapping into “the heart of America.” His touch is deft and insticts are keen. It seems unlikely much will change when/if elected.
History shows that economies rebound and four years from now the country will likely be in a period of prosperity. The chances of a two term president are good.
Without a move to the center by the GOP the political map is ripe for realignment. Left with little choice it seems the party has left llittle room for intellectuals and fiscal conservatives.
There will always be at least two parties in our system. Checks and balances demand it even if absolute power didn’t corrupt the party in power.
A socially conservative party reemerge and force new alliances and at some point become relevent.
Interestingly enough, if reallignment were to occure, there addition to the Democratic party of economic conservatives could strengthen the party bringing it further to the right.
It appears the division in the GOP to have neared the breaking point as this election appears to have left the party on the verge of divorce. The GOP has lost its identity and now learderless will flounder.
Historically parties reinvent themselves. The question becomes which road the party chooses. Buckley’s defection exemplifies the quandry it faces.
There are millions of “big D” Democrats who have felt long trapped. They are fiscally conservative, yet have historically been unable to digest the social agenda of the “Base.”
The last 8 years have been a disaster for any intellectually honest member of the GOP, as it has regressed into the party of fear and intollerance.
It would be a mistake for the GOP to discount Senator Obama as a lucky recipient of good luck. He has run a brilliant campaign tapping into “the heart of America.” His touch is deft and insticts are keen. It seems unlikely much will change when/if elected.
History shows that economies rebound and four years from now the country will likely be in a period of prosperity. The chances of a two term president are good.
Without a move to the center by the GOP the political map is ripe for realignment. Left with little choice it seems the party has left llittle room for intellectuals and fiscal conservatives.
There will always be at least two parties in our system. Checks and balances demand it even if absolute power didn’t corrupt the party in power.
A socially conservative party reemerge and force new alliances and at some point become relevent.
Interestingly enough, if reallignment were to occure, there addition to the Democratic party of economic conservatives could strengthen the party bringing it further to the right.
It appears the division in the GOP to have neared the breaking point as this election appears to have left the party on the verge of divorce. The GOP has lost its identity and now learderless will flounder.
Historically parties reinvent themselves. The question becomes which road the party chooses. Buckley’s defection exemplifies the quandry it faces.
There are millions of “big D” Democrats who have felt long trapped. They are fiscally conservative, yet have historically been unable to digest the social agenda of the “Base.”
The last 8 years have been a disaster for any intellectually honest member of the GOP, as it has regressed into the party of fear and intollerance.
It would be a mistake for the GOP to discount Senator Obama as a lucky recipient of good luck. He has run a brilliant campaign tapping into “the heart of America.” His touch is deft and insticts are keen. It seems unlikely much will change when/if elected.
History shows that economies rebound and four years from now the country will likely be in a period of prosperity. The chances of a two term president are good.
Without a move to the center by the GOP the political map is ripe for realignment. Left with little choice it seems the party has left llittle room for intellectuals and fiscal conservatives.
There will always be at least two parties in our system. Checks and balances demand it even if absolute power didn’t corrupt the party in power.
A socially conservative party reemerge and force new alliances and at some point become relevent.
Interestingly enough, if reallignment were to occure, there addition to the Democratic party of economic conservatives could strengthen the party bringing it further to the right.
@Tom:
Obama got this far by voting present. That doesn’t work in the Oval Office. The phrase “the buck stops here” comes to mind.
The ‘gator beneath the still pond is the ACORN investigations by the FBI. His campaign sent them almost a million dollars. If they did that and it is proven they knew about the registration fraud, then a RICO indictment will follow. Who will be in it will depend on who is willing to fall on their sword for Obama.
I don’t think the Republicans will have a hard time recovering. I believe they are already working on that. I think the Democrats will have a hard time holding on.
@Tom:
Obama got this far by voting present. That doesn’t work in the Oval Office. The phrase “the buck stops here” comes to mind.
The ‘gator beneath the still pond is the ACORN investigations by the FBI. His campaign sent them almost a million dollars. If they did that and it is proven they knew about the registration fraud, then a RICO indictment will follow. Who will be in it will depend on who is willing to fall on their sword for Obama.
I don’t think the Republicans will have a hard time recovering. I believe they are already working on that. I think the Democrats will have a hard time holding on.
@Tom:
Obama got this far by voting present. That doesn’t work in the Oval Office. The phrase “the buck stops here” comes to mind.
The ‘gator beneath the still pond is the ACORN investigations by the FBI. His campaign sent them almost a million dollars. If they did that and it is proven they knew about the registration fraud, then a RICO indictment will follow. Who will be in it will depend on who is willing to fall on their sword for Obama.
I don’t think the Republicans will have a hard time recovering. I believe they are already working on that. I think the Democrats will have a hard time holding on.
The statement that the “limbaugh kooks” will split off is conclusory. What evidence is there to support that notion? To the contrary the kooks have been clutching on to the moderates like a jilted lover, and the moderates love the attention because the kooks are the loudest screamers in the land. The intellectual wing of the GOP will never go with the Democrats unless the Democrats lost their own left wing. Impossible. So either the intellectuals form a new party or they stay in bed with the only grand old tired party they’ve been sleeping with since Reagan.
The statement that the “limbaugh kooks” will split off is conclusory. What evidence is there to support that notion? To the contrary the kooks have been clutching on to the moderates like a jilted lover, and the moderates love the attention because the kooks are the loudest screamers in the land. The intellectual wing of the GOP will never go with the Democrats unless the Democrats lost their own left wing. Impossible. So either the intellectuals form a new party or they stay in bed with the only grand old tired party they’ve been sleeping with since Reagan.
The statement that the “limbaugh kooks” will split off is conclusory. What evidence is there to support that notion? To the contrary the kooks have been clutching on to the moderates like a jilted lover, and the moderates love the attention because the kooks are the loudest screamers in the land. The intellectual wing of the GOP will never go with the Democrats unless the Democrats lost their own left wing. Impossible. So either the intellectuals form a new party or they stay in bed with the only grand old tired party they’ve been sleeping with since Reagan.
“History shows that economies rebound and four years from now the country will likely be in a period of prosperity. ” Tom, you’re ignoring some of the more Malthusian issues that surround this current economic meltdown. Peak oil, climate change and the subsequent shrinkage of arable land, overpopulation, the desire in the 3rd World to have what the New World has had, revolutionary anger in the Islamic world, and the plague of HIV and AIDS are the underpinnings of the destruction that greed has brought upon the world economy. I think it’s going to take major change and perhaps two generations for “prosperity” to return. Look for major “corrections” along the way. Not fun times…
“History shows that economies rebound and four years from now the country will likely be in a period of prosperity. ” Tom, you’re ignoring some of the more Malthusian issues that surround this current economic meltdown. Peak oil, climate change and the subsequent shrinkage of arable land, overpopulation, the desire in the 3rd World to have what the New World has had, revolutionary anger in the Islamic world, and the plague of HIV and AIDS are the underpinnings of the destruction that greed has brought upon the world economy. I think it’s going to take major change and perhaps two generations for “prosperity” to return. Look for major “corrections” along the way. Not fun times…
“History shows that economies rebound and four years from now the country will likely be in a period of prosperity. ” Tom, you’re ignoring some of the more Malthusian issues that surround this current economic meltdown. Peak oil, climate change and the subsequent shrinkage of arable land, overpopulation, the desire in the 3rd World to have what the New World has had, revolutionary anger in the Islamic world, and the plague of HIV and AIDS are the underpinnings of the destruction that greed has brought upon the world economy. I think it’s going to take major change and perhaps two generations for “prosperity” to return. Look for major “corrections” along the way. Not fun times…
“History shows that economies rebound and four years from now the country will likely be in a period of prosperity. ” Tom, you’re ignoring some of the more Malthusian issues that surround this current economic meltdown. Peak oil, climate change and the subsequent shrinkage of arable land, overpopulation, the desire in the 3rd World to have what the New World has had, revolutionary anger in the Islamic world, and the plague of HIV and AIDS are the underpinnings of the destruction that greed has brought upon the world economy. I think it’s going to take major change and perhaps two generations for “prosperity” to return. Look for major “corrections” along the way. Not fun times…
And Len, you’re sounding more and more like a permanently spliced tape loop.
And Len, you’re sounding more and more like a permanently spliced tape loop.
And Len, you’re sounding more and more like a permanently spliced tape loop.
And Len, you’re sounding more and more like a permanently spliced tape loop.