Sarah Palin Freefall

Research 2000/Kos Poll

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0 Responses to Sarah Palin Freefall

  1. Alex Bowles says:

    There’s good news elsewhere. This from the guys at

    Over the course of the past several days, there has been a rather dramatic shift in this election toward Barack Obama. Our trendline estimate, which is engineered to be fairly conservative, registers the swing as equaling roughly 4 points over the course of the past week.

    We now have him winning the election 71.5 percent of the time, which is about as high as that number has been all year.

    There are two reasons why that number is as high as it is. Firstly, we are more than halfway through the penultimate month of the campaign, so even relatively small leads are fairly meaningful. But secondly, Obama has developed a structural advantage in the Electoral College that is understated by the popular vote margin.

    Full story here:

    The short story is that those of us who have been dismayed by Obama’s persistently narrow margin in the popular polls, can all start to relax.

    It seems the benefits of McCain’s cynical bid for the ‘base’ has been limited to marginal success in the popular polls. However, the electoral college – which is the only thing that matters – may have just slipped permanently out of reach.

    It’s been a wild week. Really glad to have spent it with all of you. And thank you, Jon, for being such an exceptional host. I hope everyone finds a moment to disconnect from this once-in-a-lifetime spectacle, and unwind a bit this weekend.


  2. LuRain Penny says:

    Halla looya!
    Sanity is prevailing.
    Thanks for making my day.
    Keep up the statistics!

  3. zak says:

    The McCain campaign in general is going to be in free fall this weekend.

    Paul Krugman of the NYTimes posted a quote from McCain in the newly published issue of Contingencies, the magazine of the American Academy of Actuaries (I guess there’s a trade publication for everything. . .)

    Anywho, McCain touts the joys of the market as a much needed means of invigorating health care, comparing the health care industry, yes, to that of banking

    “Opening up the health insurance market to more vigorous nationwide competition, as we have done over the last decade in banking, would provide more choices of innovative products less burdened by the worst excesses of state-based regulation.”

    I look forward tot he back pedaling

  4. Jon Taplin says:

    Thank you for the props Alex. The pleasure is all mine.

  5. Seth says:

    Alex B:

    The short story is that those of us who have been dismayed by Obama’s persistently narrow margin in the popular polls, can all start to relax.

    Ok, take a nice deep breath, smile, stretch a bit … then… BACK TO WORK!! We need to win BIG to prevent electoral theft.

  6. Mason Dixon says:

    Every word out of her mouth, a lie. She’s got a huge future in show business…

  7. Plimpton says:

    I see her biggest problem being her unwillingness to discuss her actions as governor:
    I can’t believe people let her get away with that!

  8. Stefani Roberts says:

    Interesting! I’m glad there’s been a shift in the election toward Obama/Biden ’08. We need a change.

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