FiveThirtyEight.com runs a Super Tracker that averages all the tracking polls. That’s some bounce.
Obama and Biden were just elegant on CBS 60 minutes tonight.
We simply must elect them.
yeah, good stuff.
Second that. Although I did crack a smile when Obama said that the reason he was bowling wasn’t to get votes. The reason he was there was to campaign.
I was especially impressed with the way that he refused to take Kroft’s bait on the class issues, and get sucked into defining folks he wanted to connect with in a way the may turn them off.
I wouldn’t trust the 538 graph at this point. Nate’s been toying with a “bounce adjustment” that could be making his numbers a little squirrely. The RealClearPolitics average showed Obama with a 2.0 point bounce, not the six points Nate’s showing.
I can’t help but notice the very few number of data points used to trend the current Obama red line. If so few points could be determinative, then presumably, a few fewer data points for January would have yielded a trend line which had Obama up around +10. This clearly would not have been an accurate indication of whatever the true trend line might have been for January and probably means that we should not be irrationally exuberant over a trend line derived from so few data points as it may not be accurate. +$.02
Hey, it is better than it looks in the linked chart.
Open Discussion: The Convention Bounce Adjustment
Prior to the start of the Democratic National Convention last week, we introduced a convention bounce adjustment that adjust polls taken during the convention period based on historical averages of convention bounces from elections past.
Presently, this adjustment has us subtracting approximately 6 points from Barack Obama’s numbers in each poll conducted over the weekend. So a poll that shows it Obama +4 will be adjusted to a McCain +2.
That six points you see is adjusted. Without the adjustment Obama is up 12.
Big Sigh of Relief.
The red line in the chart above is the moving average of the polls, so Obama polls +6 right now. The yellow line is the forecast with the convention bounce adjustment (poll moving average-6 at this point) included, so the forecast stays dead even.
538 is also polling readers as to whether he should not factor in the convention bounce.
You can vote early and often.
He is from Chicago after all.
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