Not Much of a Battleground

The close divide of the electorate over the last four Presidential Elections has led to the notion that elections are decided in a few “Battleground States”. A new poll from the Wall Street Journal and the Washington Post shows that there doesn’t seem to be much of a battle in four of the biggest battleground states: Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin. Any notion that Democrats who supported Clinton would defect to John McCain have been banished.

“With partisans loyally aligning behind their respective parties, Obama’s edge in each of the four states is founded on two factors: An increased tendency for voters to identify as Democrats and a solid margin for the Democrat among independent voters.”

I continue to believe that this is a realignment election in which progressives and Independant, many of whom used to be known as conservatives (fiscal responsibility, distrust of foreign military engagements, and libertarian social policy) unite behind the Democratic Party banner.

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0 Responses to Not Much of a Battleground

  1. Minn. and Wis. aren’t that much of a surprise, they are more progressive than the norm. Michigan as expected is tight, but unless McCain can focus on the economy there, Obama will stay in front. Colorado is interesting, but McCain’s not being helped by the immigration issue being pulled back to the right.

  2. Jason says:

    2008 has the potential to be a realignment election, but whether the country has a whole shifts towards progressive values or we just change a few policies and don’t challenge the ideas and mindset that got us in this mess is up to Obama, in large part.

    I’m not too happy with him in this regard. He has mostly talked in vague generalities about “changing Washington” without hammering home the progressive ideas people need to buy into for the change to really happen. Ideas like accountability, respect for the rule of law, small personal sacrifice for the common good, and so on.

    Obama could permanently damage conservatism just by harping on the theme that 2000-2006 was conservatism in its least checked and purest form, and look what happened? People have short memories, and if he doesn’t make this argument now, he never will be.

  3. Morgan Warstler says:

    In 1994, every segment of the centre-right, “leave us alone” coalition felt threatened by Bill Clinton and a Democrat congress that raised taxes and threatened to nationalise healthcare, steal their guns, tax private pensions, empower unions against small businessmen and heavily tax the self-employed and small business owners. Parents were told the “village” would be running more family matters, displacing their authority.

    After 12 years of a Republican Congress and seven years of Mr Bush, all parts of the “leave us alone” coalition felt safer and forgot the plans Democrats have for them. Since the 1993 Clinton tax rise, no tax increase has been enacted at the federal level. This is the longest period in US history – going back to that tea thing – without one. Gun laws lapsed. There have been no labour union power grabs. Add the boat anchor of Iraq to a coalition lulled into a false sense of security and many conservative voters failed to notice that the left is unchanged in its ambitions.

  4. Morgan Warstler says:

    – The writer is president of Americans for Tax Reform and author of Leave Us Alone: Getting the Government’s Hands Off Our Money, Our Guns, Our Lives (HarperCollins)

  5. Dan says:

    But they did notice that our debt and deficit have ballooned, fraud is rampant, Iraq is a disaster (regardless of this month’s fatality report), the Constitution is trampled, and big corporations want and get bailouts whenever their reckless practices get them in trouble.

    The right also remains unchanged in its ambitions.

  6. rhb says:

    So what are the odds now on Hillary for VP especially after today’s co-visit in New Hampshire?

  7. Jon Taplin says:

    rhb-I’d say they are slim to none.

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