Obama's Bump In the Polls
June 9th, 2008 by Jon Taplin
Don’t say I didn’t tell you so.
Barack Obama is now enjoying a bump in his poll numbers since he sewed up the Democratic nomination, moving from a tie with John McCain a week ago to six-point leads in the two major tracking polls.
I said up ten by June 30. More than half way there already. And he’s just getting started.
No what you didn’t do was respond to my simple observation: this is the expected arc… Bush/Gore, Bush/Kerry.
To win, Obama is supposed to be up by 10 pts coming into October.
No what you didn’t do was respond to my simple observation: this is the expected arc… Bush/Gore, Bush/Kerry.
To win, Obama is supposed to be up by 10 pts coming into October.
But it is different this time Morgan. The general public are really, really pissed with the Bush and the Republicans, and that is going to carry into November in a way that we’ve not seen for a long time. It’s a totally different context than Gore or Kerry.
But it is different this time Morgan. The general public are really, really pissed with the Bush and the Republicans, and that is going to carry into November in a way that we’ve not seen for a long time. It’s a totally different context than Gore or Kerry.
In addition to having a truly inspiring choice for president in Obama, we’re going to see the biggest “throw the bums out” reaction to current affairs that we’ve seen in our lifetimes. $4.50 a gallon for gas is all you need to know about the Republicans. Once again, this is a case where reality is neither here nor there, and the important thing for Americans will be how they feel about where they are at come November. The credit crash and concurrent oil emergency will be seen as being the fault of the Republicans, and so McCain and most of his party who are running for national office are going to be handed pink slips. It’s going to be a rout, and an October surprise is Bushcain’s only hope.
In addition to having a truly inspiring choice for president in Obama, we’re going to see the biggest “throw the bums out” reaction to current affairs that we’ve seen in our lifetimes. $4.50 a gallon for gas is all you need to know about the Republicans. Once again, this is a case where reality is neither here nor there, and the important thing for Americans will be how they feel about where they are at come November. The credit crash and concurrent oil emergency will be seen as being the fault of the Republicans, and so McCain and most of his party who are running for national office are going to be handed pink slips. It’s going to be a rout, and an October surprise is Bushcain’s only hope.
But can Obama win Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida? If the street chatter is right, then McCain will win two of these three and the election. A national poll means nothing when theses states vote.
On the local and state levels though, exit polling will reveal that many people voted for McCain but Democratic on everything else. Racism or fear?
But can Obama win Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida? If the street chatter is right, then McCain will win two of these three and the election. A national poll means nothing when theses states vote.
On the local and state levels though, exit polling will reveal that many people voted for McCain but Democratic on everything else. Racism or fear?
Fearism.
Fearism.
On the other hand, were I working on McCain’s campaign, this would be right where I’d want him in the polls at this time, and the immediate future. McCain need not introduce himself to the Electorate, but Obama now has to introduce himself to those other than Democrats and Independents. McCain’s counting on that being a hard sell.
Besides, the MSM haven’t been right about one thing yet in this campaign. So let the hook sink on this angle about Barack’s lead, and then watch them all race to be the first out with the new story that McCain’s reeling him back in.
Obama, who must be tired and flushed, nevertheless has got to be extremely—Code Red—careful in the next two weeks.
On the other hand, were I working on McCain’s campaign, this would be right where I’d want him in the polls at this time, and the immediate future. McCain need not introduce himself to the Electorate, but Obama now has to introduce himself to those other than Democrats and Independents. McCain’s counting on that being a hard sell.
Besides, the MSM haven’t been right about one thing yet in this campaign. So let the hook sink on this angle about Barack’s lead, and then watch them all race to be the first out with the new story that McCain’s reeling him back in.
Obama, who must be tired and flushed, nevertheless has got to be extremely—Code Red—careful in the next two weeks.
Hugo,
This is an important observation about the media. Novelty is valued for its own sake because it generates stories and creates opportunities for new faces to get air time with breathless reporting of “the new angle”.
An underrecognized reason for the Reagan revolution was just plain boredom with the “old news” of the New Deal.
Brian- You are wrong about the Polls in Ohio and PA.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/oh/ohio_mccain_vs_obama-400.html
Jon, no he isn’t – go read the polling. Really go dig in, Survey USA skews artifically to Cleveland (the only strong Obama city – which doesn’t bode well in general) AND has the lowest sampling rate (only 600 – 4.1+/-).
Overall, it leans McCain in 2 of 3, better run polls.
Pennsylvania and Ohio will go to McCain unless Clinton can hold her voters. I’ve been in the back country of Pennsylvania and it has deep racism, beyond anything you’d find in the Deep South. Don’t confuse ‘northern’ with being ‘liberal’ on social issues. McCain speaks their language as being a maverick, that they can relate to and vote for. Remember Lynn Swann?
As for the polls, the poor urban versus poor rural will be divided by race not economics this year. I live in rural/suburban Florida and I’ve yet to hear anyone say they will vote for Obama in November. Many of the people here didn’t like Hillary, but at least she had their grudging respect. No one likes or trusts Obama. The most common phrase I hear is, ‘I don’t trust him’. Whether the country is ready to elect a biracial president or not, it’s already clear here that they’re not ready to elect this biracial candidate.
Few people are honest enough in today’s America to have an honest discussion about race. When you live in a place where the ‘N’ word is tossed about when talking about those blacks versus our blacks, racism will skew every poll from now to November. If was in Obama’s campaign I’d come right out and challenge Clinton’s voters to look inside and offer an alternative.
“There are those of you who see me as a black man and look no further. There are those of you who wish the Civil Rights Act had never been passed. There are those of you who will vote for my opponent for no other reason than because I am biracial. There are those of you that will vote for my opponent (who will seek to overturn Roe v Wade) for no other reason than I am a product of the American Dream. There are those of you who judge me by the color of my skin rather than the content of my character. There are those of you who feel that this great nation is on the wrong path and feel that I am the wrong sex for the challenges are ahead. There are those of you who believe that being an elitist is wrong yet every president since Jimmy Carter was very much an elitist. There are those of you who feel that I have no knowledge of what it’s like to live on food stamps being raised by a white single mother. There are those of you who believe in the dumbing down of America. Well my fellow Americans, this biracial man is not one of those that revels in ignorance. Yes I am educated. Yes I have pulled myself up the ladder of prosperity. Yes I am reaching still higher. Yes I believe in a fairer more compassionate nation that can lead with dignity and power. Yes I am Christian and I believe that State and Church serve two different purposes and that this country thrives because of its spiritual differences. Yes I believe that the Constitution of the United States of America is under attack and I will honor all branches of the government who seek to uphold that sacred text. Yes America I am a black man and proud of my heritage and family and if being black is the sole reason for declining to vote for me, then I in turn will decline your support, for that is not an America I wish to serve.”
brian – are you a speech writer, or is that from a recent speech?
if so, can you give us the date/venue, please?
thanks, oj
Thank you oj. This is not something that Obama said, it’s something I wrote in a few minutes as a comment here in this thread in response to the topic. I’m not a speech writer, but I am an author and poet who happens to like Jon’s blog.
If the campaign wants to hire me, by all means, contact me.
You’re a notch closer to cashing in on or before the 30th, Jon. Rasmussen just counted a seven-point spread.
Brian, they should hire you.
Morgan-It has come to my attention that you are a professional troll.
http://jyte.com/claims?tag=Morgan+Warstler
You are hereby put on notice that I’m not interested in being harrassed they way you have harrassed many other sites. If you cannot be a positive contributor, you will be blocked from this site.
You have obviously been though this before.
Brian, you should make an ad!
http://www.saysme.tv
You’ll get paid when it runs.
Jon, I’m on “notice.” (is that like double secret probation) You are now touching on c-r-a-z-y. Feeling high-jacked? Dude, I’ve been on BBS’s since 1980, remember The Well? Wired Threads? You however, sound like JH who keeps calling me an “operative.” Do whatever you want. Really truly. LOL. But be clear, liberals being confused by arguments they can’t easily pary and thrust against does not a troll make – it is likely a smarter argument, a smarter position. I don’t want to fluster you, I just want to fix you – that’s noble right? Fixing the broken suffering people? I’m here for ya, no really. I’ll be in LA week after next – we’ll do dinner.
BTW, to be “fair,” please stop calling me a libertarian here. I am one, but here at this blog for you – to try find common ground / prove my point, I advocate and support a 40% tax rate – which is decidedly un-libertarian.
Morgan- A bunch of people have sent me a lot of bad shit about your conduct in LA. I’m not going to drag you through it all, because you know what I’m talking about. I really don’t appreciate the way you approach this. You trash me personally and you trash other people on the blog. I really have tried to be tolerant of your constant one note song, but as I’ve said many times before, this is a really nice dinner party and I’m the host.
You are trying my patience.
No really, tell me how you really feel….
Jon, we have mutual friends we both love and respect – if you had questions – why not ask them about moi? There’s nothing in my “bad shit” file anyone needs to send, Google should work for you just fine too- it was a wild youth and I’m a family guy now. But good lord, I still post in my own name – that’s what Google and honesty is for, background and context – Roman Polanski I’m not.
You and I have spoken privately, we met infact at Intertainer, I’ve even asked you to get involved in pushing Free Speech on TV – does this mean really lunch is off?
If so, I’ll be bummed… meanwhile there’s nothing I can do about you banning me from your blog. Just delete my stuff. It is sad you think this is “trashing” you, but I can’t fathom posting some nice respectful trope that eases up on the fundamental personal moral theft of socialism. So ban away. Better yet, why not just ask me privately not to post – it will probably just be more of the same. It’ll keep you from confronting what one side of the world thinks about your agenda – and apparently set the high water mark on your patience.
Morgan- Why don’t you try two things?
1.Be more judicious in your choice of language.
2.Be more original in what you have to say.
I will accept your advice and delete comments I think are rude or out of line.
Finally, I understand the tactic du jour of Texas Republicans is too push this whole Marxism line. “Obama is a Marxist” says Tom Delay (and Bill Kristol). You calling me a socialist is just as meaningless.
All I am advocating is that the unchecked power of corporate America begins to come under the regulation of the government for the first time since 1980.
So you remember the 1970′s fondly, do you?
Mr. Taplin,
I beg you, aroint this motherfucker.
[...] There were a few doubters when I said he’s be up 10 points by the end of June. It may be progressives have had dissapointments for the last eight years. Obama is running much stronger at this point in the race than his two most recent Democratic predecessors, Sen. John Kerry and Vice President Al Gore, who both failed in their bids to win the White House. In a July 2004 NEWSWEEK Poll, Kerry led Bush by only 6 points (51 percent to 45 percent). In June 2000, Gore was in a dead heat with Bush (45 percent to 45 percent)—which is essentially where he ended up when that razor-thin election was finally decided [...]