The former German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer was recently in Israel for the 60th Anniversary celebrations at the same time that President Bush was there. He has some disturbing conclusions.
He argued in a a recent article he wrote for the Project Syndicate – that Israel will attack Iran’s nuclear facilities before the end of the Bush administration and that Israel effectively received the green light to this action from Bush during his recent visit to Israel. Fischer was recently in Israel to attend the celebrations for the 60th anniversary of Israel creation.
Nouriel Roubini believes the effect of this would be a worldwide depression with oil at over $200 per barrel. But he also reports some political reasons why Bush may have given the greenlight. The Iranians would retaliate for the attack through “Special Groups” in Iraq, which would then trigger U.S. counter attacks on Iranian soil.
The Bush administration whose hands have been tied by the new National Intelligence Estimate (that argued that Iran had suspended its program of development of nuclear weapons) would thus be able to strike Iran – via Israel – before the end of its term. Such October surprise by Israel would also certainly lead to the election of McCain and defeat of Obama as a national security crisis of such an extent would doom the chances of Democrats to win the White House. So both Israel – that prefers McCain to Obama and is hurried to act as it is wary of the constraints that an Obama presidency may put on its ability to act against Iran – and the Bush administration would guarantee the election of McCain.
While i don’t buy into Roubini’s conclusions about an October Surprise, its still troubling.