I Stand By My Prediction

What seems like a century ago, I said that Obama’s steady organizational strength would prevail by June.

If Obama can do well in Pennsylvania and win Oregon and North Carolina, then the elders like Pelosi, Gore and Edwards will probably call on Clinton to abandon the race and let the party unite behind Barack.

Tonight he won 55% of the under 65 white vote in North Carolina. He will do better than predicted in Indiana. The math for Hillary is now impossible. But Bill won’t let the fat lady sing.

This entry was posted in Barack Obama, Politics and tagged , , . Bookmark the permalink.

0 Responses to I Stand By My Prediction

  1. BobbyG says:

    I think HRC and Bill will continue to move the goalposts as they get ready to wrest the nomination away. Rules Committee machinations loom at the end of this month. Really worried about that.

  2. Tony says:

    Here is an interesting thought. Although worries abound about voter fatigue and a split party with the extended primary race, another view would be that this extended primary race is involving more people in more states than have been for a long time. In light of Obama’s victory speech in NC about party unity, maybe the voter involvement in these primaries will incite more voter turnout and interest in November. Voter apathy blunts democracy and I’ve not seen much apathy recently. (A view from Indiana on election night where we have not mattered for 40 years.)

  3. zak says:

    If Obama keeps a healthy lead in delegates, there would be a riot if the party people passed the nomination to Clinton. . .

    Obama is steadily picking up approval from whites, while Clinton is tanking amongst African Americans

    Now if only Obama could find the Hispanic love. . .CNN reported today that that demo feels neglected by both candidates

  4. Hugo says:

    Well, yeah Jon. You did call it. (Build, build to grand finale…) And how bloody awful that it will only get worse. !!!!

    And zak, you scare me, for this one reason: I’m afraid you might become another Hillary. (Please trust me: you don’t have to suffer for your art.) Be good, now.

    Yes, Tony, the protracted contest is registering a lot of Democratic voters, but casual and first-time voters tend to fall away by November (think of all the students disillusioned by the meanness that hasn’t yet really begun). I’ll bet you good money that come November the number of no-shows, in most of the relevant demographics, will set records. I mean, don’t even ask me how I come to make such a prediction; let it please suffice: so many campaigns, so much goodwill, so much effort, so little result.

    Can you imagine, BobbyG, the spectacle of the Clintons “moving the goalposts”? The way in which they’ve done that already is so strangely and consistently comical that you could make a pretty good Broadway musical out of it. I mean, Hillary herself set a prospective “double-digit victory” in Pennsylvania as the do-or-die bar in this contest, and when it turned out in the final counting that she’d won by one digit—the one we tend to call “nine”—her answer was that, on whichever side of the decimal point, Pennsylvania was a “double-digit win” for Hillary Clinton.

    How decorous of you to speak of the moving of goalposts. As far as the Clintons are concerned, truth is not even a mathematical possibility.

  5. zak says:

    Hugo, you’re going to have to elaborate. . . I’m not interpreting me the same way you are.

  6. Morgan Warstler says:

    I don’t know how the Clintons move the goal posts. The supers either give to them or not, right? Is there some other way?

    The real hammer lock Obama has is the Credentials Committee right? Unless there is some way (around Obama’s control) to get them to seat FL and MI, Hillary can’t win can she?

  7. STS says:


    I tend to agree with you. Huge turnout all over the place, people feeling more involved. Even all the insider baseball about the “supers” is empowering in a funny way — it’s putting a human face on the “insiders” and showing them to be more humbug than wizard.

    Sure if HRC somehow manages to shove Obama off the stage it will piss people off, possibly even lose the Dems the election this year. But those people have tasted something new and interesting. Obama would be back and other politicians will try his brand of judo.


    I enjoy your “unassimilated” point of view, but there’s a limit to what we can accomplish with bitterness. Didn’t you learn anything from “bittergate”? 😉

  8. Hugo says:

    STS, I have no idea what is “unassimilated”, but I’m not, in general, “bitter”—though I expect I would be so were I to place faith in mere politicians.


    I tried to broadcast this to you another way (my first “send” on a new, but second, iPhone): the point is that I likened you to Sen. Clinton because of your shared precocity—which attribute I hope will not lead you down her path. It seems that I should not have made the quip here—or at least not in so blunt a manner. It’s just this: I wish that no gifted young American woman would retrace Hillary Clinton’s steps. (Especially not my own kin.) That’s all.

  9. Ken Ballweg says:

    An odd point of personal optimism is that the ability of the Repubs to use a full set of tar brushes on Obama may well have been blunted by running against Clinton. Because the Clinton campaign, and the conservative pundits are banging away with most of their big guns already, the odds are that exposure fatigue is going to set in for a lot of these things. Especially Wright.

  10. Roads says:

    Let’s hope it doesn’t go out that long.

    Here’s Justin Webb from the BBC – The End.

  11. Morgan Warstler says:

    “What got her is arithmetic—not that fancy delegate math the analysts are talking about—but the arithmetic used by big city Democratic Machines for years, like the one that supports Obama in Chicago.

    It’s simple, and it goes like this: Without black voters, there is no big-city Democratic Party run by pink guys in blue suits. President of the United States is important; historically it has provided local political machines with their own hand-picked federal prosecutors. But without the money-making offices of county assessor and mayor, what good is the White House?”


  12. Morgan Warstler says:

    “With Clinton posing alongside pioneering Indy speedster Sarah Fisher, there were almost no African-Americans to be seen. Many in the white, working-class crowd were simply not ready to back Barack Obama – for reasons that are disturbing.

    “I’m kind of still up in the air between McCain and Hillary,” said Jason Jenkins, 32, who cited information from a hoax e-mail as a reason to spurn Obama.

    “I’ll be honest with you. Barack scares the hell out of me,”he said. “He swore on the Koran.”

    Obama did manage to pull in many white voters, but still encountered similar sentiments from a man who refused to shake his hand at a diner in Greenwood, Ind.

    “I can’t stand him,” the man said. “He’s a Muslim. He’s not even pro-American as far as I’m concerned.”


  13. Morgan Warstler says:

    This whole thing is going to be stupid ugly.

  14. Hugo says:

    Ye-e-e-ss LAWD, Morgan. YESsuh! REAL stupid ugly. You got DAT right.

  15. zak says:

    When Obama is debating McCain, who will make one cultural/ethnic gaffe after another, Obama is going to look pretty good. When the media pulls its neck out of the sand, starts saying Sen. McCain just last week you said X, but today you contradict yourself and Say Y, lets McCain deny (which he’s really good at), and then backs him into a corner with video footage of last week’s comments, Obama is going to look pretty good. When women realize McCain will solidly stack the Supreme Count against abortion, and the pro-life movement gets louder with it’s new rallying cry that the birth control pill is murder too (yes, preventing pregnancy, not just ending one, is now deemed murder by the pro-lifers), Obama is going to be looking pretty good. When people realize how much a relic of the early 20th century McCain is, they will break for Obama.

    Primarily, I hold the shakey belief that Americans will not spite themselves based on the color of his skin.

    Though political incorrect to say it, Americans will vote for an African-American for President well before a woman is elected. African American men got the right to vote BEFORE women (and white women would the the race issue here), and the Civil Rights movement came along in the 60s to irrevocably move black MEN towards equality.

    Meanwhile, the Equal Rights Amendment was NEVER passed. The Ledbetter bill just got shot down. Bills that would have made sure women were treated with equality.

    What’s that news out of Washington University? They’re giving Phyllis Schlafly an honorary PhD along with all the young women they’re graduating. Why is Phyllis being honored?
    *successful ten year campaign against the ERA,
    * married women can’t be raped by their husbands because “by getting married, the woman has consented to sex, and I don’t think you can call it rape,”
    * calling for a ban on non-traditional careers for women
    * promoting the notion that women are only qualified to be homemakers because we’re “are too emotional to handle intellectual or scientific debate.”

    The US is not ready for a woman in the White House. I will see it in my life time, but the time is not now.

    But it feels like a good time to take the next step in bridging the racial divide.

    Hugo, feel free to swing by my blog and leave a comment anytime, then we don’t have to publicly billboard our dialogue online.

  16. STS says:


    By “unassimilated” I meant not swayed by the folly that is “conventional wisdom”.

    And the bitterness I’m really concerned about is the general human tendency to retreat from a struggle after a disappointment. I’d hate to see the movement Obama has created just turn away from politics either because of some trick Clinton pulls or because he eventually does something disappointing to the faithful. Heartbreak is inevitable in politics. The meaning comes from the long range goals, not the hero of the moment.

  17. Hugo says:

    I couldn’t agree more, STS (and thank you for the compliment in re “unassimilated”.) As I happen to hold a tragic worldview anyway, I personally am quite un[heart]breakable politically. But that doesn’t mean that I want to see a cohort of collegians get jaded just so their take on politics will more closely resemble my own. If they can take whatever hit it is that they get off Obama, and turn the buzz into some worthy “long-range goals”, then more power to them. But it looks like they’ll have to provide the goals, because that’s clearly not Barack’s department.

    I’ve tried to steel supporters of one candidate or another, but the effort is misinterpreted as muckraking, when all I’m trying to say is, “I admire your loyalty; now, prepare for passage through the asteroid belt.”

    And the thing is, we haven’t even reached the asteroid belt yet. Zak’s talking faux pas, and I’m talking the proverbial dead girl or live boy.

    How is the idealism going to survive the imminent unfolding of the ugliest campaign in history? (It’s hard for me not to go gonzo here—that’s how ugly.)

  18. Morgan Warstler says:


    The reason it is going to be so ugly, is because if Obama doesn’t win, or even fails to lead through-out, your side is going to scream it is because of racists – all those Hillary supporters.

    The middle of the road, where most people live, is wide open, 36% undecided is a ton, and the only reason Obama won’t be able to pull this off, is if he doesn’t make that pivot Jon is talking about count.

    From my side of the compass, I love it, because McCain is going to have to throw an awful lot of annoying conservatives (anti-immigration, pro-life) over the boat. If he doesn’t, he’ll lose. And altho others disagree, I think he’s likely to do so.

    Its a fair race, both guys have a shot a claiming/swaying the middle. It’d be great if it didn’t involve escalating charges of racism. But thats not going to happen.

  19. Hugo says:

    Right you are, Morgan: McCain’s going to the La Raza convention in July.

Leave a Reply