Hillary is Worried
The definitive Des Moines Register final poll before the Iowa Caucus was released last night. It shows that Obama has taken the lead, outside the margin of error. The most important finding is that Obama has brought a “dramatic influx of first-time caucus-goers.” As I contended a few days ago all the national polling organizations do not sample the cell-phone only population, which is mostly students. But the Register has built a turnout model that seems to acknowledge the role of the students and Independents in the Obama Movement. If the students show up on Thursday night the Democratic establishment (i.e. Clinton Machine) is going to freak out.
Already Hillary’s chief strategist Mark Penn is spinning wildly about the Register’s turnout model. He cannot imagine that Barack’s authentic change message could bring a significant number of new voters into the Democratic fold. The old special interest groups on the Democratic Side (Big Labor and Emily’s List) are pouring money into Iowa to stop Obama, but I don’t think its enough to stop the Progressive Boomers and their Children who make up the Obama Movement. Even the New York Times august Adam Nagourney, fount of Conventional Wisdom, seems confused. He floats the idea that the outcome in Iowa will be so close that no one can declare victory:
One of the bedrock political assumptions of the year — and certainly one that has informed Mrs. Clinton’s campaign — is that winning Iowa and New Hampshire would set the table for sweeping the 20 or so states that vote on Feb. 5, the day when many Democrats believe that their contest will effectively be decided. But if Iowans end up being equally divided among what many party leaders view as an unusually strong cast of candidates, who is to say that voters in the Feb. 5 states won’t be as well?
I’m aware that the Times really believed their own hype that the national campaign would end up being Hillary Vs. Rudy, thus cementing New York’s position as the Center of The Universe. Their prediction still may come true, but if Obama has a convincing win on Thursday night, Friday morning’s paper is going to be an example of Monday Morning Quarterbacking that will be studied in journalism schools like Annenberg for years to come.
Personally, I don’t want another Clinton, Bush, Kennedy or repeat of any previous administration. It would be great if Obama wins in Iowa if for no other reason than to send a message to the Clinton’s that “hey it’s over for you now….move aside!”
It IS time for change and I think that is what the American people want. Unfortunately as with most presidential elections, we have yet to see a candidate worthy of the position.
Where are the smartest and brightest? Actually Ron Paul is the only candidate that promotes really shaking it up. Not that I think he is the right candidate, but he certainly is not shy about speaking his mind, which by the way resonates with a lot of what I believe in…”shaking it up” I mean.
In conclusion, I believe as many do, it’s really a popularity contest based upon nothing to do with real issues. Case in point, I think Mitt Romney is going to ultimately be the GOP candidate and have the best chance because of his “Kennedy like” charm and good looks.
I haven’t heard a Democrat yet have the guts to address any real issues, which is a sad state given this is the party that has the real opportunity to shake it up with very little at risk.
They (Democrats) have no real legitimate stance on the war, immigration, health care or education. What are these candidates waiting for?
So disappointing! It is really time for another political party or maybe just a total revolution!
All in all Iowa doesn’t really mean that much in the grand scheme of things except to highlight that “the game is on”!
[...] incompetence will come together in New Hampshire and give Obama another big victory. Adam Nagourney who was so wrong three days ago, comes around: The images stood as evidence of the success of Mr. Obama’s effort to [...]
[...] moines Register Iowa caucus poll says they will. Mark Penn is spinning out of control on the news.http://jtaplin.wordpress.com/2008/01/01/hillary-is-worried/Algona Upper Des Moines NewspaperMid-Iowa news · Nevada Journal · Story County [...]